Hungarian forint hits 1.5-year high against USD — What’s driving the surge and what’s next?

The Hungarian forint is on fire! Thanks to a weakening US dollar fuelled by the Trump administration’s policies, the forint recently soared to its strongest level against the dollar in 18 months. Investors and markets are buzzing — but what’s behind this rally, and will it keep going?

Hungarian forint hits 1.5-year high against USD

According to Portfolio, the dollar’s broad slide has boosted all regional emerging currencies, with the Hungarian forint leading the charge. Adding fuel to the fire, the National Bank of Hungary’s Monetary Council surprised many by holding the central bank base rate steady at a solid 6.50% yesterday: a clear signal of confidence that sent positive ripples through the market.

In their post-meeting statement, the Council emphasised a “stability-oriented” approach, warning that cautious, patient monetary policy remains crucial amid inflation risks and ongoing geopolitical tensions.

But that’s not all. The recent ceasefire in the Middle East, announced just yesterday, sent shockwaves through global markets, causing oil prices to plunge. Lower oil prices mean inflation pressures ease, which is great news for Hungary’s economic outlook. Combined with Hungary’s attractive base rate, these factors are turbocharging the forint’s strength.