Is Hungary ready to move away from Russian gas? Preparations have secretly begun

Europe’s gas market has come under sustained pressure in recent years, driven largely by the dramatic collapse in Russian imports. Hungary has so far maintained a stable position, yet the post-2028 era could bring unprecedented challenges: are we ready to move away from Russian gas?

Over the past three years, Central and Eastern Europe’s gas market has undergone a structural shift of historic proportions. While European industry remains unable to meaningfully reduce its dependence on natural gas, the region is experiencing an infrastructural shock that fundamentally disrupts its previous operating model, Portfolio reports.

Declining consumption, stable role: gas remains essential

Natural gas continues to be one of the most critical energy sources for European industry — cleaner alternatives still cannot provide the continuous, high-intensity energy supply required by sectors such as chemicals, metals, food and paper production.

Although Europe’s overall gas consumption has been declining in the long term, ABN Amro’s analysis shows that EU usage increased by 3% between January and September 2025. Demand also rose in two-thirds of member states, with Austria recording a 14% increase and Portugal 12%.

Gas’s role in industry remains almost unchanged. In 2023, gas accounted for 31% of industrial energy use — roughly on par with electricity — and still around 5% above 1990 levels. Emissions data reinforce this: 65% of industrial CO₂ emissions come from fossil fuel combustion, with gas being the largest contributor.

Multiple shocks hit the Central European gas market

Meanwhile, Central Europe’s infrastructure has faced extraordinary pressure. Between 2022 and 2025, three major shocks struck the region’s gas market: an 80% drop in Russian exports, the mass termination of long-term EU transit contracts, and a reversal of gas flows.

Instead of the traditional east–west direction, more gas is now flowing from west to east, particularly towards Ukraine — a shift that has caused capacity shortages and rising tariffs across several networks.

In Austria, entry tariffs will double from 2026, while exit fees will rise by 77%. Slovakia’s transit revenues have almost halved in the past seven years, and the 70% tariff hike planned for 2026 could even bring an end to eastward transit.