K&H Bank’s chief analyst about the Hungarian euro, the forint’s bright future and the rising inflation

Hungary’s economy is still capable of coping with an exchange rate of 360 forints to the euro, the chief analyst of K&H Bank said on Wednesday at a business forum in Székesfehérvár organised by Videoton Holding.

Stronger forint, ambitious Hungarian euro introduction

In his presentation, entitled Intoxicated by Hope, Dávid Németh suggested it is unlikely that the Hungarian currency will strengthen beyond the 340 level against the euro. This year, the main trading range is expected to settle between 360 and 370, although a renewed appreciation of the forint may emerge next year. In his view, Hungary could adopt the euro at a rate below 350, the Hungarian News Agency wrote.

The analyst added that the National Bank of Hungary may cut its current base rate of 6.25 per cent twice this year, potentially reducing it to below 5 per cent by the end of next year.

Turning to inflation, he noted that price growth was exceptionally subdued at the start of the year, but a marked acceleration is anticipated by year-end, with inflation likely to exceed 4 per cent and rise above 5 per cent next year. According to statements by the new government, Hungary could introduce the euro in 2030, which would require meeting the Maastricht criteria from the summer of 2027. Mr Németh described this as somewhat ambitious, particularly given inflationary pressures that would necessitate a tight monetary policy.

Economic performance better

He also highlighted encouraging March data from the domestic real economy: retail sales have gathered pace, including in non-food segments, while industrial orders have surged since December. Growth of 4–5 per cent in industrial output could be achievable, provided the international environment proves supportive. For now, however, external conditions remain unfavourable, with Germany’s confidence index deteriorating markedly amid high energy prices.

Mr Németh warned that net exports are likely to weigh on Hungary’s economic performance this year, though stronger domestic consumption and investment could offset the drag. He forecasts economic growth of between 2.6 and 3 per cent in 2026, aided in part by the inflow of EU funds.

He cautioned, however, that considerable uncertainty surrounds the direction of economic policy. Markets, he argued, may be overly optimistic, while it remains unclear whether the Tisza government is “gearing up for the next election or focusing on long-term objectives” — in other words, whether substantive reforms will follow.

Stronger forint bad for exporters, good for country

Ottó Sinkó, the co-CEO of Hungarian-owned electronics manufacturing services company Videoton, acknowledged the negative impact of the stronger forint on exporters, but said the appreciating currency could have broader benefits for the whole country at a business forum on Wednesday. Speaking at the forum organised by Videoton in Szekesfehervar (W Hungary), Sinkó said the company had assumed a HUF/EUR exchange rate of 393 when drawing up its 2026 business plan, adding that the currency’s post-election strengthening would hit exporters like Videoton.

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He said that the firmer forint would be positive for the country overall, as it would reduce yields on government securities, and added that bringing home Hungary’s European Union funding could support economic growth.

Videoton’s revenue declined in January-April from the same period a year earlier, Sinkó said, adding that turnover may have dropped for Hungary’s entire manufacturing sector. He said the outlook was cloudy because of declining global trade and high energy prices.

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