It seems that today, the Hungarian forint will set a new negative record compared to the USD or the euro. On Thursday, Hungarians had to give as much as HUF 369.2 for 1 euro, which was very close to the previous negative record of HUF 369.6 per 1 euro.
Portfolio.hu, a Hungarian business news website, monitors the changes in the value of the Hungarian forint around the clock. They said that we have to concentrate on the USD. If the value of the US currency starts to rise, it can easily mean that the HUF will decrease below a level never seen before.
Based on the technical analysis of Equilor, the level of the Hungarian currency reached a new local peak on Thursday, and it came close to the 369-370 resistance zone, which can be tested in the following days multiple times. Meanwhile, the RSI indicator showed some negative divergence. If that remains, for which the HUF remaining below 370 is a prerequisite, it might start a negative correction in the future.
In the morning, the forint strengthened a bit. However, it started to come closer to the peak of 369.6 during the rest of the day.
The reason behind the weakening of the Hungarian forint is the increase in the USD’s value compared to the euro. By Thursday afternoon, the American currency increased by 0.2 pc compared to the previous day against the European Union’s currency.
But why is the US currency getting stronger?
That is because of a Fed decision, and if the value of the USD increases, it is bad news for the emerging currencies like the HUF. Friday morning, USD 1 cost HUF 309.56 while one had to pay for 1 English pound HUF 430.7.
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regional competitors, for example, the Polish złoty and the Czech koruna, decreased in value.
From the emerging markets, only the Turkish lira could rise. That is because of the morning decision of the Turkish national bank to increase the base rate by 200 instead of the expected 100 points.