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The clock is ticking: Hungary risks losing EUR 1 billion in EU aid by year’s end!
As 2025 draws to a close, Hungary stands to lose over EUR 1 billion (approximately HUF 400 billion) in EU cohesion funds permanently, due to missed deadlines tied to ongoing corruption risks. This marks the second such forfeiture in as many years, following a similar EUR 1.04 billion loss at the end of 2024. The European Commission has confirmed these figures, attributing the cuts to the “conditionality mechanism” activated in late 2022, which all EU member states except Hungary and Poland endorsed.
Hungary to lose a huge amount of EU aid money
The mechanism suspends 55% of payments across three operational programmes from the EUR 6.3 billion cohesion budget earmarked for Hungary’s poorer regions during the 2021-2027 period, Telex reports. Under the EU’s strict “N+2” rule, funds committed for spending in a given year must be claimed by the end of the second year thereafter, or they revert to the central EU budget. Commitments slated for 2023 expenditure could no longer be requested after 31 December 2025, sealing their fate despite any future reforms, Népszava writes.
EU officials insist the suspensions stem from unresolved issues in anti-corruption laws, transparency, and rule-of-law standards. To unlock the funds, Hungary must enact specific legislative changes, including better oversight of public interest trusts (known as “KEKVA”) and judicial reforms. Progress has stalled: talks “ground to a halt” as noted by former minister Tibor Navracsics in early 2024, and the government’s latest assessment in late 2024 admitted shortfalls on key conditions out of 17 demanded.
Government figures push back forcefully. EU Affairs Minister János Bóka argued in January that Hungary met all conditions, framing the losses as “political” rather than substantive. Fidesz-KDNP communications chief Tamás Menczer echoed this, likening the situation to misplacing a phone rather than a genuine forfeiture driven by policy failures. Critics, however, point to tangible non-compliance, such as the KEKVAs’ mismanagement exposed in State Audit Office reports, evident in the second state bailout for Kecskemét’s Neumann János University’s campus after significant losses.
Looming larger losses in 2026
The stakes escalate dramatically next year. Hungary risks forfeiting EUR 10.4 billion from the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), including a EUR 920 million advance already received, which must be repaid if “super-milestones” on rule-of-law reforms aren’t hit by August 2026. These overlap with cohesion fund preconditions, amplifying the already huge pressure.
The Orbán government has floated reallocating RRF funds to later years and hinted at leveraging vetoes in the next EU budget cycle (post-2027) for “reparations”. Yet Prime Minister Orbán himself projected at least two years of negotiations in July, potentially triggering further “N+2” forfeitures in 2025-2026. A related court case at the EU’s General Court questions the legality of past fund releases due to similar blackmail allegations.
With the clock ticking (mere days remain until the latest deadline, as highlighted in an ATV report), these losses could total nearly a third of frozen development aid. Even swift action post-elections might not salvage them.
Hungary under Mr. Orbán repeatedly uses the EU’s unanimity rules as leverage. Our Politicians threaten or apply a veto on key decisions, then they routinely trade consent for concessions. Release or re‑labeling of frozen funds, etc… Formally, this is “negotiation within the rules,” however in practice (and perception of all the other EU Member States) liken it to hostage‑taking, with Hungary routinely (ten times documented, to date) blocking an urgent collective decision until its own, generally unrelated, demands are addressed.
Also – our Politicians love to bang on about the importance of EU expansion. But since Hungary has turned the veto into a regular negotiation tactic, it is now central in debates about EU reform and additional conditions for enlargement (two speed EU, etc.). The other EU Members are not champing at the bit to admit anyone new until this issue of monetizing or politicizing veto power is resolved.
The EU has been structuring proposals so that they only require a “qualified majority” thus negating Orban’s veto. If Fidesz stays in office after April I think we can expect that if anything the EU will take an even harder line on Hungary. It will not be pretty.
You are right, Dear Larry : Orbán will win in April, and the EU will double down on heinous and stupid.
It will not succeed, however, because behind Orbán stands, Xi, Putin, Netanyahu, and Trump.
The EU is the one that is soon to be regime changed. mark my words.
Happy New Year!!!
@mouton – now you’re naming a foursome everyone wants to be closely associated with! Quick little analysis from my end, if I may.
Messrs. Xi, Putin, Netanyahu, Trump all embody, in different ways, a style of politics where personal power, loyalty, and short‑term tactical gains often prevails over institutional norms, rule‑based multilateralism, or long‑term collective commitments.
In summary – strongman politics and transactional, interest-first “friendship”. And Hungary is a very small fish in a big pond. No, thank you!
Excellent thoughts, Dear Norbert.
Unfortunately I think Hungary has no current choice other than to be a little fish in a big pond.
As to ‘transactional’, all politics are, in the end, 99.9% of exactly that.
There is simply no getting away from this.
As to ‘institutional norms’ what we currently have is, from the perspective of centuries, nothing ‘normal’.
It is not even ‘normal1 from the perspective of the year 2000.
Moreover, it, the current Liberal World Order, is sinking as we speak.
Nobody in The West, who is not a Modern Liberal, sees your prime minister as a ‘strong-man’.
No, Sir – he is a very very gentle and kindhearted man.
That is why he is, and long has been, so popular.
But, please do not get angry at me for thinking so – I have not elected him time after time.
I do, however, agree with your analysis of the leaders.
@Mouton – agree that politics is inevitably partly transactional.
However, politics cannot survive as purely transactional without corroding itself. Systems depend on some shared principles and long‑term commitments. Think rule of law, institutions, protection of rights, and at least a minimum sense of acting for the public good (i.e. not just for friends, family, toadies or short‑term gains).
When everything becomes a deal, no holds barred, the rules of the game weaken, trust collapses, and even the most skilled dealmakers end up undermining the system they need to operate in.
Over to you – and wishing you all a happy and healthy 2026!
Fidesz is consistently considerably behind Tisza in polls. Hungarians have had enough of the corruption and more and more aren’t buying the lies and propaganda. Eventually you have to deliver. Even Orban realizes that and as far as I can see they have put away the “Golden Age Is Coming” promise. People realize it’s never coming. The only thing Fidesz has left is scaremongering about war, and “Brussels” etc. They can’t run on any record of providing a better life for Hungarians. If Hungarians actually vote for four more years of having their pockets picked by these bandits they are complete fools but propaganda as a chance to do it.
“Fidesz is consistently considerably behind Tisza in polls”
Please do not misinterpret this date, Dear Larry.
In the first place this ‘Nepszava’ poll is slanted Left.
In the second place, it does not necessarily mean that these voters, who look more favourably upon Tisza than Fidesz will actually vote for Magyar.
The safest way to interpret this data is that perhaps nearly half of Hungary would like to have somebody they could vote for – other than Fidesz or Mi Hazank.
I totally disagree with you on what Orban has delivered.
No, he has not revitalized the economic structure of Hungary – but, neither is Hungary currently subject to every sort of malady and mayhem many countries, richer than Hungary, in Europe are.
To be fair about it – Orban has delivered some very important things – but, there are holes.
‘Hungary under Mr. Orbán repeatedly uses the EU’s unanimity rules as leverage.’
Yes, Dear Norbert, it’s called diplomacy.
Bruxelles want to gobble up Hungary and turn into another failed nation.
You, and apparently other Budapestan Leftists seem to wish any recognizeable Hungary destroyed, therefore you decry and an all tactics your prime minister uses to prevent that.
The Western Elite is trying to crush Hungary, and without even firing a single shot.
The trouble is that that they have run into a hall of fame Hungarian fox.
@mouton – where it crosses from “normal diplomacy” into “hostage diplomacy” (or blackmail) is about scale, pattern, and motive:
Our Politicians use it repeatedly, on very high‑stakes, time‑critical issues (sanctions, war, budgets, Ukraine aid)
Their demands are often only loosely related to the blocked decision (e.g., using Ukraine aid to get frozen cohesion funds released, or soften rule‑of‑law conditions), and
The credibility of EU action is weakened each time, because everyone expects a last‑minute Hungarian drama and a payoff.
If you had to deal with a party – private or business – that operates like this on an ongoing basis, well. New best friends, right?
Fair enough, Dear Norbert, but, if the EU would only act to promote the economic interests and defence of Europe, instead of trying to destroy nations with godlessness, homosexuality, economic piracy, and using a non EU country as a platform to destroy Russia, the EU would not have to worry about ‘being weakened’.
The EU will either convert to the confederate-nationalist form that Orban, and many who hide behind his jacket, want, or it will soon perish.
Happy New Year!!!!
You can be 100% certain that if Hungary’s government was yet another faceless Brussels puppet, even with everything else in this story being exactly the same, this money (some of which is Hungary’s contribution to the E.U.’s budget anyway!) would’ve been paid out to us a long time ago.
The E.U. sickens me to the core.
‘The E.U. sickens me to the core.’
Do not worry, Herr Steiner – the would-be regime changers of Hungary’s government are themselves to be regime-changed.
The current disposition of the EU is very unlikely to survive this year.
The natives have grown restless and are sharpening their pickaxes and hoes.
Facts and data … Hungary has in total paid in (2004–2024) approximately EUR 25 to 30 billion in gross contributions. Total EU funds allocated or paid to Hungary for the same period is EUR 70 to 90 billion in structural funds, cohesion funds, agricultural subsidies (CAP), recovery money, etc.
Do the math, and you will find we NETTED EUR 40 to 60 billion from the EU budget over two decades. Again, in most years, EU funds corresponds to about 3 to 5 percent of Hungary’s GDP annually. If you’re bored, do take a look at our growth figures since we joined the EU and see how they look when you deduct that percentage?
Again, Dear Norbert – you are citing truth, but, it is truth in a vacuum.
The Western Elite raked Hungary over the coals throughout the 20th century – stealing untold sums of money from her, not to mention stripping her of her land.
Doubt me – go listen to Zsuzsanna Borvendég lay it all out – theft by theft.
Why are you so allergic to the idea of Hungary getting a better deal – for a change?
This article is one that plays only into simple-minded Leftists.
And why is that?
Because for all the money the EU tries to take away from Hungary, money will flow in from numerous sources to replace it.
Never forget – Orbán is the most liked leader in the world.
Friendship and popularity are weapons of their own kind, particuarly in defensive warfare.
@mouton – facts and data. Check my response to @michaelsteiner.
And do let me know who will invest in a landlocked country, with little in the way of natural resource, dependent on foreign direct investment and structurally reliant on continued, full access to the EU common market?
Phrased differently – better a good neighbor than a far‑away friend. Hungary’s entire economic model, trade structure, and security environment are anchored in our immediate neighborhood and the EU, and our security ultimately rests on NATO and regional cooperation in Central Europe. Basta.
You have made a good argument here, and, when time permits I will reply to it.
I do, however, have one thought, and it is to your question : ‘who will invest in a landlocked country, with little in the way of natural resource, dependent on foreign direct investment?’
Russia and China have both demonstrated considerable willingness to partner with Hungary, for a variety of reasons, and, as Mi Hazánk has demonstrated, Arabia has great potential to become a trading partner of Hungary, because of Hungary’s agricultural sector.
This area is not handled well by Fidesz, which, to my way of thinking, would be yet another reason to vote for Toroczkai László.
‘Hungary’s entire economic model, trade structure, and security environment are anchored in our immediate neighborhood and the EU, and our security ultimately rests on NATO and regional cooperation in Central Europe.’
That is incorrect, Dear Norbert.
No, if I were in Orbán’s shoes, I would start a new union, an alternative market to the EU. I would name it – the Eurasia Zone.
Many would flock to join – from Serbia, Czech Republic, and Slovakia, to Turkey, Azerbaijan, Russia, and China. Not so long after Romania, Greece, Bulgaria, and a few years later Moldova, Kazakhstan, and Poland would be in it.
The ‘EZ’ would could quickly make it’ economic mark, and would remove any need for Hungary to deal with The Western Elite.
Orbán has already put together this structure, in an informal way.
All he has to do is formalize it.
It can be done, and I note that he already began working on it, a couple of years back, when he said Hungary would have to turn East.
This is Orbán’s genius – he is an internationalist, and, given Hungary1s unique background, it probably is the only nation that could pull this off.
Interesting comments by an individual, under a “pseudonym” – Mouton, residing outside the boarders of Hungary.
The “den” or hole that Victor Mihaly. Orban lives, knowing the DEVASTATION he has effected on Hungary, over the time post June 1989 – his “mouthing off” in Hero’s Square, the “wall” having been felled, the statement of being the most “admired” liked global leader – CRAZED.
Victor Mihaly. Orban with those referred in the commentary contribution by under Mouton, the “den” or is it a lair, he is in, through his partnerships, friendships and relationships all (4) four named in their DNA in practice of Dictators and (2) two of which are under Governance of Communism, if the lions don’t devour him, through the Power of DEMOCRACY – it’s the growing number of jackals that circle just “biding time” that will, as Orban falls deeper into humiliation and persecution – all of his doing “claim” him – “devour” rightfully him.
Hungary, the country in his DELIVERY to Hungary a country that is in the “abyss” of a new dark age – what’s going to be the Hungary of the Future ?
Nothing, nothing absolutely NOTHING can be contributed to the future of Hungary by the name – Victor Mihaly. Orban / Fidesz.
There will be no re-enactment of the Story of Jonah, as he Victor Mihaly. Orban – after being “devoured” will not be “spewed” out – to fight another day but be CONSUMED.