New map reveals Hungary’s shocking population decline — but figures across the region are even grimmer
Hungary’s population has been steadily shrinking since 1981, and the trend shows no sign of reversing, despite significant government incentives for couples starting families or raising multiple children. The reasons: low birth rates, high mortality, and emigration. Replacement through immigration is negligible, as guest workers are only allowed to stay temporarily and are generally not eligible for citizenship.
Yesterday, we reported on the ordeal of a Filipino woman and her family, who were deported despite her being married and giving birth in Hungary. This case underscores the Hungarian government’s stance to counter population decline not through immigration—especially not from East Asia—but through domestic means, possibly by encouraging ethnic Hungarians abroad to resettle.
Population decline continues unabated
Despite efforts, the Hungarian government’s attempts appear to be falling short. After a brief baby boom in the mid-2010s, births have once again plummeted. Experts attribute this to the fact that many parents took advantage of government programs at the time to have children they had already planned to, front-loading future births. Analysts have also pointed out that beyond financial aid (such as home-buying subsidies or tax allowances), support is needed to help mothers of young children re-enter the workforce, possibly through part-time job opportunities.
Hungary’s situation is not unique in Eastern Europe. A recent population forecast for the year 2100 predicts significant declines across the region. Still, Hungary is expected to fare relatively better than most of its neighbors. However, the country’s fertility rate—just 1.27 during the first half of 2025—remains alarmingly close to its 2011 all-time low of 1.23. The projection is based on United Nations population data.
Hungary may shrink to 7.5 million by the turn of the century
The map in question shows that Hungary’s population is expected to shrink by 23% over the next 75 years, meaning it will fall below 7.5 million by 2100. As of this year, Hungary’s population stands at 9.539 million, though many of those listed as residents actually live and work abroad.
Virtually every nearby country without significant immigration also faces steep declines. Ukraine is projected to suffer the greatest loss—61%—due to war and economic struggles. The populations of several Balkan countries are expected to drop sharply, including Albania (-57%), Bosnia and Herzegovina (-56%), and North Macedonia (-52%). Similar reductions are anticipated in Latvia, Lithuania, and Belarus (all over -50%). Even Poland, despite its economic strength, is projected to lose nearly half its population (-49%).
Only Austria and the Czech Republic fare better
Population losses will also be severe in Serbia (-45%), Croatia (-44%), and Romania (-43%), while Slovakia may see a 37% decline. Slovenia and Hungary are both forecasted to lose 23%. Only Austria is expected to do better in the region with a 19% drop, thanks in large part to economic immigration. Czechia, too, is expected to experience a slightly smaller decline than Hungary, by just one percentage point.
Interestingly, only a handful of European countries are projected to see population growth by 2100: Luxembourg (+10%), the United Kingdom (+7%), Sweden (+7%), France (+3%), and Switzerland (+2%).
You can explore the map in detail HERE; it’s the second post on the page.
Read more from us:
- Surprising number of foreigners now live in Hungary: Most Asian nationals ever recorded
- More immigrants or more emigrants? This is how Hungary’s migration trends shifted since 1995
Click for more articles on population trends and changes.
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