Latest poll shows that Péter Magyar’s victory and a government change are unlikely

Péter Magyar, leader of the Tisza Party, announced yesterday afternoon and evening the candidates his party will field in individual constituencies, with just two exceptions. Magyar believes that “if they don’t mess it up,” they will take over the “responsibility of government” in the spring. However, the government-aligned Nézőpont Institute considers a government change improbable, predicting Viktor Orbán will win by a wide margin. This contradicts results from independent polling institutes.

The government’s welfare measures visible in the data

Independent pollsters have been tracking the Tisza Party’s lead over Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party for about a year now. The latest Medián poll found that the Tisza Party still has several hundred thousand more supporters, although this advantage has slightly diminished in recent months, mainly due to various government cash handout measures recently announced.

• Latest poll suggests PM Orbán may keep his seat until 2030

Calculations by G7 estimate that the government’s promises would cost between 1.7% and 2.12% of Hungary’s 2025 GDP. It’s no coincidence the Orbán cabinet plans a 5% GDP-proportional deficit even next year. After his hearing before the Parliamentary Economic Committee, Minister of Economy Márton Nagy told 24.hu that the election giveaways are covered by government bond and treasury bill issuances—that is, by increasing public debt.

The Tisza Party is hopeless, according to Nézőpont

Echoing Medián’s findings, the government-linked Nézőpont Institute also concluded that the government parties’ strengthening results from various cash transfers. According to the Hungarian News Agency, they pointed to major programmes such as the Otthon Start scheme, the 14th month pension, cuts to business taxes, extra payments for armed forces, and tax exemptions for mothers of three or more children. Additionally, Orbán’s international standing, marked by meetings with Trump and Putin, is also considered a factor in bolstering support.

Unlike before, Nézőpont hasn’t published monthly polling data since the Tisza Party’s rise. Their latest poll put the governing party at 46%, estimating 47% by November, while the Tisza Party stands at 40% among committed party voters. Nézőpont’s irregular timeline data always shows Fidesz leading, but no other polling institute concurs except those close to the government.

High turnout, hundreds of thousands more voters

Nézőpont attributes the Tisza Party’s failure to gain ground recently to a data leak scandal and its failure to set the agenda with a defining issue. Moreover, citing an index.hu article—which the Tisza Party immediately denied—the government began campaigning that if Tisza took power, it would impose significant 1300 billion forint austerity. According to Nézőpont, the Tisza Party cannot chip away at Fidesz’s massive voter base; it mostly consumes support from other opposition parties.