Latest pre-election poll: could Orbán face his biggest defeat in 16 years?

A new Medián poll-based mandate estimate published by HVG projects a decisive parliamentary victory for Péter Magyar’s Tisza Party, potentially delivering a comfortable two-thirds majority in Hungary’s National Assembly.

Based on an aggregated dataset from five nationally representative telephone surveys conducted in late February and March, Medián estimates Tisza could secure 138–143 seats, while Fidesz would fall to 49–55 mandates. The far-right Mi Hazánk is also likely to enter parliament, with 5–6 seats projected. Medián stresses the calculation is an estimate, meaning outcomes can only be responsibly expressed within a range rather than as an exact number.

For international readers: Hungary’s parliament has 199 seats, and a “two-thirds” (constitutional) majority is politically significant because it enables the governing side to pass certain high-threshold decisions without needing support from other parties.

What the Medián mandate estimate says

According to HVG’s summary of Medián’s work, the Medián poll aggregation suggests campaign dynamics in the final weeks may have favoured Tisza, translating into a projected two-thirds parliamentary majority.

Medián’s estimate puts the balance of power in stark terms:

• Tisza Party: 138–143 seats
• Fidesz: 49–55 seats
• Mi Hazánk: 5–6 seats
• Other parties are not projected to clear the threshold in the mandate estimate cited by HVG.

Medián underlines that this is a probabilistic estimate, not a guaranteed seat count, and that uncertainty should be expressed as a band.

Voting intention figures ahead of election day

HVG reports that, shortly before the election, Medián measured the following voting intentions among the voting-age population:

• Tisza Party: 48%
• Fidesz: 30%
• Mi Hazánk: 4%
• DK: 2%
• MKKP: 1%
• 15% either did not answer, did not intend to vote, or were certain they would not vote.

The article notes the election date as 12 April, and frames the estimate as reflecting the late-campaign shift captured in the combined polling data.

Other polls from today: 4 days to Hungary’s election - two fresh polls point to a tight finish

Who backs Tisza and who backs Fidesz

Age remains the strongest divider

Medián’s analysis, as presented by HVG, finds that party choice is still most strongly shaped by age.

Tisza is reported to be strongest among younger voters and continues to gain month by month:

• Among under-30s, around three-quarters would vote for Tisza.
• Among 30–40-year-olds, 63% would vote for Tisza.
• In these same age groups, Fidesz support is much lower (around 10% and 17%, respectively).

Fidesz retains its advantage among older voters. Among those over 64, nearly half would support Fidesz, while 29% would back Tisza.

Education shows a sharp split

HVG’s summary highlights large differences by educational level:

• Among graduates and those with secondary school completion (érettségi), an absolute majority would vote for Tisza, while only roughly a quarter to a fifth support Fidesz.
• Among those with vocational training, Fidesz holds a slight lead.
• Among voters with eight years of schooling or less, Fidesz leads strongly (reported as 49% Fidesz versus 29% Tisza).

Place of residence is becoming less decisive

While larger towns and cities still lean more towards Tisza and smaller settlements remain relatively stronger for Fidesz, HVG reports that these gaps have narrowed. In March, even in villages, Tisza is said to lead 41:35 over Fidesz. Regional differences are also described as minimal, with Tisza support measured broadly in the 45–49% range across most regions, compared with 30–33% for Fidesz.

Explainer: Why Péter Magyar became Hungary’s most formidable challenger to Orbán

Where the voters came from since 2022 and 2024

Because Tisza did not exist at the 2022 parliamentary election, Medián also examined where its current support is drawn from. HVG reports:

• Nearly nine-tenths of voters who backed the 2022 opposition alliance would now vote for Tisza.
• Around half of voters who previously supported other parties would also switch to Tisza.
• More than half of those who did not vote in 2022 would now vote for Tisza.
• Tisza has even attracted around one-eighth of former Fidesz voters.

By contrast, HVG reports Medián’s finding that Fidesz has lost around a quarter of its 2022 base, and that since the 2024 European Parliament election, there has also been notable slippage among former government-party voters.

Why this estimate matters

If the Medián poll mandate range proved accurate, it would imply not merely a change of government but a shift strong enough to reshape parliamentary power dynamics in Hungary. At the same time, Medián’s own caveat is central: the figures are an estimate expressed as a range, and turnout and late swings can still matter greatly in the final result.

Incidentally, the pro-government polling firm Nézőpont predicts a neck-and-neck race:

Even pro-government forecast denies Fidesz supermajority with Mi Hazánk as rival polls predict Tisza landslide