ZH
IT
DE
HR
NL
FR
JA
RO
RU
ES
TR
Will PM Orbán fall from power in 2026? New poll may signal another turning point
Péter Magyar and the Tisza Party have been leading the opinion polls conducted by institutes not tied to the Orbán government since last November – that is, for a little over a year. Tisza’s lead grew almost continuously until the summer, when Fidesz began to regain strength. However, the latest survey from December may signal yet another turning point: despite all the promises, is the desire for a change of government simply too strong? Or will Fidesz continue to win thanks to rural constituencies and the distortions built into the electoral system?
Simple Fidesz message: if they do not win, we will die – or at the very least become impoverished
The IDEA Institute conducted an online opinion poll between 27 November and 4 December, warning of a potential trend reversal a mere four months before the 2026 elections. In truth, the election campaign has effectively been under way for months, and neither Christmas nor the New Year period is likely to bring any easing of tensions. Almost every corner of Hungary is plastered with posters claiming that Magyar and his party – as members of the European People’s Party – would raise taxes and cut state transfers in order to scrape together enough money to support the Ukrainians and to block the United States’ efforts to broker peace.
It is unclear how this rather rudimentary message resonates with Hungarian voters, but it is a fact that numerous videos are circulating online showing how afraid people in certain rural settlements – especially among the poorest social groups – are of being conscripted and sent to the Russian front. It is also a fact that by the end of the summer PM Orbán’s Fidesz had managed to halt Tisza’s rise and its own decline through a wave of announced handouts and a brutal smear campaign launched against Tisza.
What is more, through high-profile talks with Presidents Trump and Putin, and by floating the prospect of a Ukrainian–Russian peace deal signed in Budapest, they even succeeded in seizing back the initiative in political communication.
- Could civil war erupt after next April? Every second Hungarian believes the election will be rigged
Will there be a change of government in 2026? Here is the newest prognosis
Yet it appears that this reversal in fortunes lasted only for a short while. According to the most recent survey by the IDEA Institute, support levels have now frozen, and Tisza still enjoys a 7% lead over Fidesz across the entire population, 24.hu wrote. If elections were held this Sunday, 35% of Hungarian voters would back Tisza, compared with just 28% for Fidesz. Even so, Péter Magyar and his team have no reason to grow complacent, even if these figures are accurate.
One peculiarity of the Hungarian electoral system is that the vote of a citizen in a small settlement effectively carries more weight than that of someone living in a city. As a consequence, it could well happen that although Tisza wins more votes in absolute terms, those votes are “only” enough to secure the urban constituencies (where they would win by large margins), while they fall short in small rural communities. Fully aware of this, Péter Magyar has been tirelessly touring the countryside, setting himself the goal of meeting “everyone” he can during his nationwide campaign. He only rarely appears in large cities – especially Budapest – and then mainly at major demonstrations or commemorative events.
This past weekend was more of an exception than the rule. In response to cases of abuse and other crimes committed at the juvenile detention centre on Szőlő Street, Péter Magyar called a protest outside the presidential palace and the prime minister’s residence to demand better protection for minors. Despite the bad weather, a great many people took part in the demonstration, and with this topic Magyar is clearly aiming straight at Fidesz’s most sensitive spot. The governing parties have long treated family protection and child protection as flagship issues, and have built several referendums around them, yet the horrors revealed within the walls of the Szőlő Street institution have inflicted deep wounds on this carefully cultivated image.
A three-party parliament?
In the summer, Fidesz announced a major package of giveaways: a 14th month of pension payments, “weapon money” bonuses for soldiers and police officers, income tax exemptions for mothers, and cheap business and home-buying loans. With these measures, and the tantalising prospect of a Russian–Ukrainian peace agreement being signed in Budapest, they managed to reverse the negative trend by autumn and strengthen their position, while Tisza weakened. According to IDEA, this trend had come to a halt by December, and the voter bases of the two major parties have now stabilised.
- PM Orbán is making steady strides towards another significant victory, but can Péter Magyar turn the tide?
Although four months before an election this is less decisive, it may still be telling in terms of trends that among those who can name a party they would vote for, Tisza’s lead stands at 8%.
According to IDEA, the Democratic Coalition (DK) would be the third political force to clear the parliamentary threshold if an election were held this Sunday. Interestingly, other surveys independent of the government regularly place Our Homeland (Mi Hazánk) in the winning position for that third spot..
- Click and read additional poll results concerning the 2026 general elections.
If the election had been held last year, or even this Spring, Magyar would have won.
Now there are only one path for Magyar to win… he has to convince Smalltown and Rural Hungary that he will never import a single immigrant, no matter how much pressure is applied to him, via Bruxelles.
If he can convince only 20% of the country folk that he is insincere in this pledge, he still can win.
If he continues to point out Fidesz corruption he will not win, because the voters who can be won to his side this way area already with him.
The ones who are not with him are those who like his economic ideas and anti-corruption views, but, who will not vote to turn Hungary into a Homosexual and Islamic paradise to get those things.
“If he can convince only 20% of the country folk that he is SINCERE in this pledge, he still can win.”
Samsung, God = up to 800 seasonal workers may go by 25th December 2025.
Why wasn’t this work force number Hungarians ???
“Bleeding” of wages scale through CHEAPNESS idiotic policies of Victor Mihaly. Orban and his Fidesz Government that HAS allowed this “seasonal” worker category DOMINANT in the work force numbers in Hungary.
Hungarians dismissive in FIRST priority of work being AGAIN sacrificed by Orban – Fidesz giving PRIORITY to cheaper “seasonal” predominantly Asian person(s) over Hungarians.
Samsung – have Reason(s) whether we agree or disagree.
Is this AGAIN another factual example of the Orban led Fidesz Government a Government not of firstly what’s best for ALL Hungarians and secondly – what’s best for Hungary.
Haven’t we again been lied to – ABUSED and Exploited by the fabrication of Truth by this “heinous” this “toxic in culture” a government of Greed of Selfishness – has not Orban / Fidesz – FAILED us personally and as a country – AGAIN ????
Spring of 2026 – list grows why they MUST fall, be “thrown out” of POWER out of office, to allow a “flickering ” of light of HOPE – for the FUTURE of Hungary.
Victor Mihaly. Orban and his Fidesz Government – if the message through diabolical performance as a Government over the course of (16) sixteen years – the DEVASTATION they have DELIVERED on Hungary, the “smashing” in Europe and globally of trust and respect in the name Hungary, if in our cities, towns, villages, and hamlets – remembering 1.2 Hungarians are living in POVERTY and it CLIMB’s – increases, if the MESSAGE – the factual picture, the cataclysmic impacted DISASTER economically and financially on Hungary – caused created by Victor Mihaly. Orban and his Fidesz Government – if Hungarians, from “all stations in life” don’t accept the Mess, the Chaos of Hungary and “throw out” Orban and his Fidesz Government we are DOOMED.
Victor Mihaly. Orban – his Fidesz Government – his “inner sanctum” the Oligarchy – have NOTHING, absolutely NOTHING, nothing to contribute to the FUTURE of Hungary – nothing.
Since you are a foreigner, allow me to explain “countryside”.
One of the first things our Politicians did when they came to power was to pass the electoral law restructuring. This altered constituency boundaries in ways that disadvantage the opposition in major cities.
Budapest used to have 32 parliamentary districts. It is now left with only 18 single member districts – and boundaries were redrawn to include rural areas (which – as you pointed out – lean Fidesz). Similar stories for Szeged, Pécs, Miskolc, and Debrecen.
Thank you, Dear Norbert, for sharing this with me.
I did not know it.
In my country we refer to this kind of legislative action as ‘Gerrymandering’ – something which is done in EVERY state in my country.
In fact, ‘gerrymandering is quite a controversy in my country, as of late, this because Conservative states have taken note that the Liberal states have outgerrymandered (have done more gerrymandering) and have begun to make efforts to address that imbalance.
Typical of Blue-state (Liberal) gerrymandering is Connecticut, which, although it has nearly 40% conservative Republican voters, has only ONE Republican districts and 12 Democrat districts!
That is a 7.5% representation for the nearly 40%!!!
This is why, as I have said to you – this outcry over who is a ‘Democrat’ and who is a ‘Dictator’, means nothing, because whoever is in power wishes to maintain power, and that human reality does not change with the system.
Well. Hungary is not that big. Think population New Jersey, economy Kansas and the size of Indiana. Fidesz and its coalition partner KDNP secured two-thirds majorities since coming to power. You will find the differential percentage of votes versus percentage of seats telling.
2010: 53 percent of votes yielded 68 percent of seats
2014: 45 percent of votes yielded 67 percent of seats
2018: 49 percent of votes yielded 67 percent of seats
Speaking of which – missing coverage in @dailynewshungary regarding the purported plans to change the Hungarian Constitution, naming Mr. Orbán President – and amping up said role. Tying this back to the above – two thirds of Parliament votes enables changing the Constitution, resulting in one major change and nine further amendments, since 2011. Bit of a moving target, our Constitution.
Fun fact – on ATV (one of our broadcasters), our Mr. Orbán stated bluntly that he had considered the option of switching to a presidential system since coming to power in 2010… Work in progress, I guess?
Thank you for your informative remarks, Dear Norbert.
I am always happy to learn from you – that’s how I know what I know now, listening carefully to others and reading vociferously.
Yes, I do believe your prime minister that is ‘a work in progress’, if, for no other reason than the lay of the political land has shifted so dramatically since his return to power in 2010.
I remember him remarking enthusiastically, to an interviewer, that the underlying motivating factor behind Hungary’s desire to be both in the EU and NATO was because freedom always came from The West, and Hungarians want freedom.’
Of course, this is a while ago, but, I remember being a bit perplexed by that statement, if only because i regard Hungarians as being, other than Jews and Gypsies, the most unusual clan in Europe.
Though some Hungarians appear totally Aryan, most look like a perfect hybrid blend of Aryan, Turk, and Kazakh.
That, and the Hungarian tribes’ giving up of the traditional economy – being warriors and mercenaries, made me consider that they are a different kind of European.
For whatever it is worth – I like this ‘difference’.
There is something in Hungarian blood that is very worthy – bravery and combativeness, fiercely independent, that I find most admirable.
Your prime minister is a worthy heir to this legacy.
Dobrev Klara – what a bright, elegant and warm lady who, with her degenerate fan, is, nevertheless, an utter ninny.
Thank God she will never get anywhere near power in Hungary – other than post photos of her would-be shadow governments.