Will PM Orbán fall from power in 2026? New poll may signal another turning point
Péter Magyar and the Tisza Party have been leading the opinion polls conducted by institutes not tied to the Orbán government since last November – that is, for a little over a year. Tisza’s lead grew almost continuously until the summer, when Fidesz began to regain strength. However, the latest survey from December may signal yet another turning point: despite all the promises, is the desire for a change of government simply too strong? Or will Fidesz continue to win thanks to rural constituencies and the distortions built into the electoral system?
Simple Fidesz message: if they do not win, we will die – or at the very least become impoverished
The IDEA Institute conducted an online opinion poll between 27 November and 4 December, warning of a potential trend reversal a mere four months before the 2026 elections. In truth, the election campaign has effectively been under way for months, and neither Christmas nor the New Year period is likely to bring any easing of tensions. Almost every corner of Hungary is plastered with posters claiming that Magyar and his party – as members of the European People’s Party – would raise taxes and cut state transfers in order to scrape together enough money to support the Ukrainians and to block the United States’ efforts to broker peace.
It is unclear how this rather rudimentary message resonates with Hungarian voters, but it is a fact that numerous videos are circulating online showing how afraid people in certain rural settlements – especially among the poorest social groups – are of being conscripted and sent to the Russian front. It is also a fact that by the end of the summer PM Orbán’s Fidesz had managed to halt Tisza’s rise and its own decline through a wave of announced handouts and a brutal smear campaign launched against Tisza.
What is more, through high-profile talks with Presidents Trump and Putin, and by floating the prospect of a Ukrainian–Russian peace deal signed in Budapest, they even succeeded in seizing back the initiative in political communication.
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Yet it appears that this reversal in fortunes lasted only for a short while. According to the most recent survey by the IDEA Institute, support levels have now frozen, and Tisza still enjoys a 7% lead over Fidesz across the entire population, 24.hu wrote. If elections were held this Sunday, 35% of Hungarian voters would back Tisza, compared with just 28% for Fidesz. Even so, Péter Magyar and his team have no reason to grow complacent, even if these figures are accurate.
One peculiarity of the Hungarian electoral system is that the vote of a citizen in a small settlement effectively carries more weight than that of someone living in a city. As a consequence, it could well happen that although Tisza wins more votes in absolute terms, those votes are “only” enough to secure the urban constituencies (where they would win by large margins), while they fall short in small rural communities. Fully aware of this, Péter Magyar has been tirelessly touring the countryside, setting himself the goal of meeting “everyone” he can during his nationwide campaign. He only rarely appears in large cities – especially Budapest – and then mainly at major demonstrations or commemorative events.
This past weekend was more of an exception than the rule. In response to cases of abuse and other crimes committed at the juvenile detention centre on Szőlő Street, Péter Magyar called a protest outside the presidential palace and the prime minister’s residence to demand better protection for minors. Despite the bad weather, a great many people took part in the demonstration, and with this topic Magyar is clearly aiming straight at Fidesz’s most sensitive spot. The governing parties have long treated family protection and child protection as flagship issues, and have built several referendums around them, yet the horrors revealed within the walls of the Szőlő Street institution have inflicted deep wounds on this carefully cultivated image.
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In the summer, Fidesz announced a major package of giveaways: a 14th month of pension payments, “weapon money” bonuses for soldiers and police officers, income tax exemptions for mothers, and cheap business and home-buying loans. With these measures, and the tantalising prospect of a Russian–Ukrainian peace agreement being signed in Budapest, they managed to reverse the negative trend by autumn and strengthen their position, while Tisza weakened. According to IDEA, this trend had come to a halt by December, and the voter bases of the two major parties have now stabilised.
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Although four months before an election this is less decisive, it may still be telling in terms of trends that among those who can name a party they would vote for, Tisza’s lead stands at 8%.
According to IDEA, the Democratic Coalition (DK) would be the third political force to clear the parliamentary threshold if an election were held this Sunday. Interestingly, other surveys independent of the government regularly place Our Homeland (Mi Hazánk) in the winning position for that third spot..
- Click and read additional poll results concerning the 2026 general elections.