Orbán’s narrative of financial collapse is causing confusion among investors
International financial experts are equally puzzled as to why Viktor Orbán keeps talking about an imminent financial catastrophe and the need for an all-important “shield”, even though Hungary’s key economic indicators suggest the exact opposite.
International investors do not understand why Viktor Orbán is speaking of an impending financial market collapse when – according to Bloomberg’s analysis – there is no sign that Hungary is facing any sort of economic danger, even in the short term. As the news agency points out, 2025 has so far been a particularly strong year for Hungarian financial markets, Telex reports.
A strengthening forint and a soaring stock market
According to Bloomberg’s data, the forint has strengthened by 8 per cent against the euro and by 20 per cent against the dollar in 2025, marking the second-largest increase among emerging market currencies after the Russian rouble.
This makes the current year the most promising for the Hungarian currency since the period between 2002 and 2012. The Budapest Stock Exchange’s main index has also performed exceptionally well, rising by 62 per cent in dollar terms.
Orbán’s narrative and investors’ perplexity
In recent weeks, Viktor Orbán has repeatedly stated that Hungary may need a “financial shield” in the event of a possible attack on the forint. He claims to have reached an agreement on this in Washington with US President Donald Trump, though the government has yet to provide any concrete details.
As hvg reported, the Prime Minister is envisaging a shield worth roughly 10–20 billion dollars – that is, 3.3–6.7 trillion forints – which could be activated by the Hungarian National Bank and the US Federal Reserve.
However, analysts quoted by Bloomberg say the situation does not justify any kind of immediate bailout. They point out that although the forint slipped by 0.8 per cent against the euro following the resignation of MNB Deputy Governor Barnabás Virág, it regained significant strength within hours.
According to Malin Rosengren of the London-based asset manager RBC BlueBay, Hungary does not need any sort of immediate shield, and it remains unclear why Orbán would pursue such a move in the first place.
Investors are betting on an electoral turnaround
Experts also highlight that none of the possible scenarios appear promising from Orbán’s perspective.
According to the report, one of the explanations for the forint’s strengthening is precisely that some foreign investors expect Orbán to lose next spring’s election. Market expectations suggest that a government led by the Tisza Party could unlock certain EU funds, which would further improve Hungary’s economic outlook and strengthen the forint’s position.
Barry van der Laan, chief FX strategist at Monex Europe, believes the American “shield” may serve more to bolster Orbán’s political crisis narrative than provide any genuine financial protection.
Raffaela Tenconi, senior economist at Wood & Co., expressed a similar view. She argues that no significant financial market instability is expected before next year’s election, meaning the “shield” is very likely to function merely as a campaign message.
I do not envy Orban Viktor’s position … at all.
To say his position is difficult is an understatement.
That said, if anybody can find a way to win, in this situation, it is he.
Orban Victor is a shrewder politician than Bill Clinton, and that is saying a lot.
Orban is even shrewder than Macron, because Orban gets results within the limits of certain fixed boundaries and values, whereas Macron has no fixed value or boundaries – other than himself.
A few weeks ago I put Orban’s reelection chances at 7-5 odds, or approximately 57%.
However, if President Trump does not put as much effort for Orban as President Putin has, for his reelection, I would put his chances currently at 1-1.5 odds or approximately 40%.
If Orban were not so shrewd I would put his odds at 1-64, but, his abilities are immense.
Orban’s best shot to beat Magyar is to get money from the U.S (in order to continue to offer large grants, of varying descriptions to Hungarians, particularly outside of Budapest)- all the while so completely destroying Magyar’s reputation that just enough voters cannot bring themselves to for for the head of the Tisza Party.
Varga Judit may be helpful in this.
With the exception of the pedofilia scandal, she is always extremely helpful.
Lowest household consumption rate per capita and the highest corruption rate in the EU. Levels of corruption have a direct bearing on national prosperity and Hungary is living proof. Levels of stupidity needed to vote again for this government need to reach new heights for Hungarians. Should they manage to achieve those new heights they will truly get what they deserve. I do have some hope Hungarians are finally waking up as their lives get worse the longer the bandits run their country. When we get a new government it will take 20 years to deprogramme the population from the mind warping propaganda they have been subject to for so long. By the way Radio Liberty US public broadcasts into Hungary stopped at midnight Nov 21st as Trump seeks to help Orban with his media control prior to the election.
‘”.. the highest corruption rate in the EU…”
Worse than Romania, Moldova, and the Ukraine, Dear Larry?
https://www.intellinews.com/hungary-ranked-most-corrupt-country-in-eu-in-transparency-s-cpi-index-366644/
Thank you for the link, Dear Larry –
Research a little bit about this Intellinews site, and you see that it’s proprietor is a certain Mr. Jerome Booth; he an Englishman who has spent much of his career in the banking industry.
Booth is also head of a ‘Global Warming Policy Foundation.’
Again, Dear Larry – thank you for sharing this with me, though, given that Booth is part of the Transnational Force attempting a coup on Hungarian sovereignty, as is his head of operations – Mr. Ben Aris, I cannot understand why you would respect anything they say.
They are expert spin-artists – which means that they use ‘studies’ commissioned by themselves and their allies to make their anti-Hungarian claims look plausible.
These are the very same people who dragged the world into two wars in the previous century which led to the nearly complete dismemberment of your country.
No wonder you have such a negative view of your country – you believe it’s enemies.
In any case – I hope this comment finds you well and in good spirits.
Forget Orban. Fact is, the West’s economy (economies!) is a house of cards. We produce next to nothing and most of the value that we call “G.D.P.” is in the form of papers: bonds, I.O.U.s, other debts, and interest payments. It is those papers that get traded, i.e. bought and sold, not actual products and services. In the U.S. up to 85% of the economy is financialized.
Worse, our currencies are based on little more than hope and prayer. They are tied to nothing solid; it’s all about how “investors” feel about a particular country at a given moment.
The solution is simple: 1) re-industrialize and 2) return to the gold standard.
But, of course, the vested interests in keeping our economies as forms of little more than an illusion are too big and powerful so toward the cliff we continue to hurtle.
It will all end in tears. Ours.
Yes, Herr Steiner – reindustrialize is right.
Yet, you mention nothing about immigration or how we get the transnational banks and corporations off our backs?
Without dealing with those things, none of your good ideas can come to pass.
When Shen met his match 😂
Victor can perhaps see the writing on the wall. Having taken most of the EU money and put it in his, his family’s and close friend’s pockets, he can perhaps secure another taxpayer paid back loan from the U.S to skim for one last shot at us.
Why pretend you didn’t read what Orbán said?
He explicitly explained, that Hungary is in danger of a politically motivated financial assault, using the market to facilitate regime change.
It’s not that hard.