In April, the prime minister said a Hungarian–U.S. trade agreement could be reached within six months to offset Donald Trump’s economic measures. However, Szabad Európa reports —citing government sources— that such a deal is still not on the agenda.

“Hungary expects to sign a business deal with the United States within six months that could help to offset the likely impact of tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump,” Reuters quoted Viktor Orbán as saying on April 19.

In the interview, he also explained how they would try to mitigate the negative effects of the tariffs:

“We are in talks with the Americans about economic issues which would be advantageous for us. The tariffs will be negative for us, but we negotiate about other economic deals to offset those,” the prime minister added at the time.

Six months have now passed, yet Szabad Európa—again citing government sources—reports that the agreement is not on the agenda and that no talks are underway. This is despite the fact that, after Trump took office and threatened the European Union with significant tariffs, some in Budapest voiced irrationally optimistic expectations.

There were those who hoped Washington would make an exception for Hungary—even though tariffs fall under EU competence and individual member states cannot be subjected to differing rules.

Without the European Union, it’s not possible

Certain trade and customs matters—especially the import of Russian energy carriers and the system of tariff preferences—are not national but EU competences. This means that no single member state can conclude on its own any agreement that would grant tariff relief or market advantages. That is why it was always unlikely that Hungary could have negotiated any deal with the United States that would confer special privileges.

Experts had already warned at the time of the prime minister’s “agreement within six months” announcement that, for legal and political reasons alike, the promise did not hold up. Half a year on, this is clear: no substantive talks have begun on a separate bilateral trade deal.

How Hungarian–U.S. relations have evolved

After the Biden administration left office on 20 January 2025, the United States under Donald Trump took a different approach to Hungary.

According to Szabad Európa, Trump’s expectations of Viktor Orbán were clear: buy American weapons and gas, and loosen economic ties with China. None of this has happened, nor has the double taxation treaty—terminated under Biden—been renegotiated.

Politically, however, there has been a visible shift. The regular U.S. criticism of the state of the rule of law in Hungary has subsided, previously banned Hungarian officials were removed from U.S. entry blacklists, and high-level meetings with American officials have become more frequent.

None of this, however, has produced a breakthrough on either phasing out Russian energy or on trade matters—issues that remain the most pressing in the bilateral relationship.

“Don’t blame Hungary” — a change in tone

Over the past six months, Donald Trump has repeatedly urged EU member states to stop buying Russian oil and gas, arguing that such purchases “undermine Europe’s security” and “weaken Western unity.” In his criticisms, he mentioned Hungary several times, particularly because of the Druzhba (Friendship) oil pipeline. The Hungarian government has consistently rejected U.S. and EU pressure, arguing that without a seaport, there are no real alternatives, and that halting Russian energy imports would be too risky for Hungary.

The latest twist in the debate is that on 25 September 2025, Trump struck a much more conciliatory tone: he said “Hungary should not be blamed,” because the country’s geographical situation leaves it “tied to a single pipeline.”