The surface shows Péter Magyar soaring, but an emerging trend could deliver victory to PM Orbán in 2026

The Prime Minister last promised a 14th monthly pension during the 2006 elections, which he eventually lost. Péter Magyar, however, is keeping all the stakes—and even raising them—so he’s not to be underestimated when it comes to spending. The latest survey indicates the Tisza Party has little to fear, yet deeper trends are emerging that could clearly favour Fidesz in next April’s election.

It feels as if the election is tomorrow

Hungary finds itself in a strange situation. From an outsider’s perspective, the intensity of political discourse and public attention seems puzzling since there are still at least five months until the elections. Still, it often feels like the polling stations will open tomorrow.

The stakes are high. Observing public debate, the Prime Minister and his allies have good reason to believe that a loss would mean the collapse of their carefully built card house: the economic network and all their years of struggle would be for nothing. This fuels their desperation and determination, as there is no Plan B. The situation is underscored by the fact that Orbán’s eldest child, Ráhel Orbán, is already in the United States with her husband (who has become one of Hungary’s top five wealthiest people in recent years) and their children, for her studies.

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Half a million more Tisza supporters

According to Závecz Research’s October poll, Orbán’s camp has good cause to worry. Five months out from the elections, the Tisza Party’s support among the entire population rose to 35% in October, while Fidesz stands at 29%. This 7% gap translates to around half a million more voters for Tisza, whose base numbers 2.8 million. It’s worth noting that in 2022, 3 million votes secured the Fidesz-KDNP alliance a two-thirds parliamentary majority amid record turnout (in fact, by one additional MP).

Závecz predicts a four-party parliament if the elections were held now, with Mi Hazánk and the Democratic Coalition likely to enter too. Political analyst Gábor Török says the key question five months out is whether there are still “convertible” voters. Previously, he noted that most voters have already decided who to support. Another question is turnout among those convinced by either camp. For quite some time, Fidesz has proven nearly unbeatable at mobilisation in Hungarian politics. Meanwhile, the share of voters without party affiliation remains significant at 22% of the population, but most of these are unlikely to vote in 2026, according to Závecz.

Orbán ramps up giveaways to the max

A previous Republikon survey yielded similar results, except with a notably higher share of non-affiliated voters. Yet, just like Závecz, it showed Tisza holding a half-million voter lead over Fidesz.

However, Orbán’s camp is launching the next phase of giveaways. The Prime Minister announced the 14th monthly pension (last promised in 2006), a 3% housing loan is being paid out, public sector workers receive an annual 1 million forint bonus, and even court employees can expect a 13th-month salary. Not to mention the weapon allowance equivalent to six months’ salary for law enforcement officers.

Experts say Hungary’s economy is sputtering, with no growth expected this year despite promises of a take-off. Nevertheless, the government is pushing wages upward to boost morale, though this discourages corporate investment.

The trend that might worry Péter Magyar

Here, it seems Péter Magyar could succeed by April. Though the chance of Hungary’s consumer confidence index turning positive this year is slim, it reached nearly a one-year high in September, based on GKI. Meanwhile, fears of inflation have eased, and there is growing hope that consumers will spend more on goods than before. The consumer confidence index in Hungary closely follows government popularity. If it continues to rise, victory could be possible in 2026, says Péter Tölgyessy, a former MP, Orbán’s ex-advisor, and political analyst, who now doubts society will swing towards Tisza as much as earlier thought.

• Click for more news concerning the Tisza Party.

People trust Péter Magyar more

Policy Solutions (PS) recently found a similar pattern: public perception of the country’s condition has improved compared to six months ago. Fewer people fear economic decline; most expect stagnation. Economic sentiment is more optimistic in Budapest and large cities but more pessimistic in smaller towns and rural areas, which Policy Solutions sees as a risk for Fidesz, whose strongholds lie there.

Interestingly, Hungarians would trust Tisza in 9 out of 12 key public policy areas, particularly regarding EU funds and healthcare improvements. The majority even entrust Péter Magyar more with tax cuts. Orbán’s edge appears only on migration, family support, and staying out of war. The Fidesz campaign focuses heavily on these themes and portrays Orbán as a peacemaker, alongside attempts to expose the opposition’s inadequacy (referencing the “data leak” scandal).

Another notable point from the Policy Solutions study is that, if the situation sharpens, Tisza could draw larger support reserves from Mi Hazánk and the Democratic Coalition voters than Fidesz.