Medián’s polling has proved uncannily accurate, nailing the outcome of the 2026 general election and even forecasting Tisza’s two-thirds triumph months ahead. Now comes their first post-election survey, suggesting Fidesz is shrinking from steamroller with a supermajority to mere minnow status. But who might supplant Viktor Orbán’s party?
Fidesz drifting towards minnow territory?
Median wasted no time after Tisza’s landslide, launching a representative poll of 1,000 respondents whose results HVG published yesterday—behind a paywall, though Telex has distilled the essentials. Tisza leads with 56 per cent across the full population, enough for an absolute majority even in a purely proportional list system.
The rest speaks volumes: the Dog Party and DK hover around 1 per cent apiece; Our Homeland holds steady at 6 per cent across voter segments, securing parliamentary seats; Fidesz trails with just 21 per cent nationwide.
Among those able to choose, Tisza’s edge is 65-25; among committed deciders, it’s 66-25.
Most Hungarians sense a brighter course
Péter Magyar’s government is not yet formed, yet expectations run sky-high, amplified by the winner-takes-all bandwagon effect. Many erstwhile Fidesz voters now say they would spurn Orbán’s party—perhaps because fear of job loss or reprisal for a “wrong” answer to pollsters has ebbed.
RTL Híradó covered the data too: 54 per cent of respondents believe things are moving in the right direction since Tisza’s victory—a 21-point jump. Only 27 per cent see the ship of state veering off course post-12 April. Economic optimism is even keener, buoyed perhaps by yesterday’s personal income tax cuts or progress in talks with Brussels to unfreeze EU funds.
Median’s margin of error remains ±3.1 per cent.
If you missed our previous articles concerning the new Magyar cabinet:
President convenes new Hungarian Parliament, with Orbán in minority as Péter Magyar’s Tisza holds supermajority
Magyar unveils Tisza blueprint: 16 ministries, purge of “bones in the closet” – and a bid to freeze EU penalties
Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake – Napoleon
The last 10 days has demonstrated that the Fidesz camp is deluded to the point of denying all reality while disclaiming any responsibility for the country’s ills with many commentators failing to find a single error in their governance and pre-election campaign. The outgoing PM could highlight only the failure to finish Paks II as a tangible error. Last night’s interview with Szijjarto on Telex was a car crash capable of inducing severe nausea in the viewer. In fact, it would have been far better had he not gone on camera as Fidesz probably lost another 5 points in the polls.
As the movement appears pathologically incapable of facing up to the defeat and effecting the necessary change they have no visible political future beyond a handful of ‘ultras’. This is without mentioning the clear and present danger that if Tisza demonstrate a mere modicum of competence in government, generating a semblance of economic growth, unfreezing EU funds and ensuring that hospital washrooms are always stocked with soap and lavatory paper, they’ll de facto be viewed as the more effective governing party. Fidesz have unfortunately set a very low bar indeed to cross which for Tisza, even with their political inexperience will be a walk in the park simply by employing common sense, intelligence and keeping their hands out of the cookie jar. We also have the enormous pent up frustration with the outgoing camp which is an angry pustule that’ll take years to drain while the constant drip of corruption scandals, blackmailing, court hearings and so on run through the system.
The Fidesz brand is tainted beyond all redemption in a way that MSZP never was and even they ended up with no measurable support in the electorate so what hope is there for the future? The latest Median poll shows that Fidesz support is bleeding away like a broken fire hydrant and their financial backers will be quick to turn off the financial taps as from their perspective ploughing further money into this project is (paraphrasing a witty Hungarian expression) akin to giving colonic irrigation to a corpse.
RIP Fidesz 1988 – 2026