Stunning new poll: Is Orbán’s Fidesz becoming a small party before our very eyes?

Medián’s polling has proved uncannily accurate, nailing the outcome of the 2026 general election and even forecasting Tisza’s two-thirds triumph months ahead. Now comes their first post-election survey, suggesting Fidesz is shrinking from steamroller with a supermajority to mere minnow status. But who might supplant Viktor Orbán’s party?

Fidesz drifting towards minnow territory?

Median wasted no time after Tisza’s landslide, launching a representative poll of 1,000 respondents whose results HVG published yesterday—behind a paywall, though Telex has distilled the essentials. Tisza leads with 56 per cent across the full population, enough for an absolute majority even in a purely proportional list system.

The rest speaks volumes: the Dog Party and DK hover around 1 per cent apiece; Our Homeland holds steady at 6 per cent across voter segments, securing parliamentary seats; Fidesz trails with just 21 per cent nationwide.

Among those able to choose, Tisza’s edge is 65-25; among committed deciders, it’s 66-25.

Most Hungarians sense a brighter course

Péter Magyar’s government is not yet formed, yet expectations run sky-high, amplified by the winner-takes-all bandwagon effect. Many erstwhile Fidesz voters now say they would spurn Orbán’s party—perhaps because fear of job loss or reprisal for a “wrong” answer to pollsters has ebbed.

RTL Híradó covered the data too: 54 per cent of respondents believe things are moving in the right direction since Tisza’s victory—a 21-point jump. Only 27 per cent see the ship of state veering off course post-12 April. Economic optimism is even keener, buoyed perhaps by yesterday’s personal income tax cuts or progress in talks with Brussels to unfreeze EU funds.

Median’s margin of error remains ±3.1 per cent.

If you missed our previous articles concerning the new Magyar cabinet:

President convenes new Hungarian Parliament, with Orbán in minority as Péter Magyar’s Tisza holds supermajority

Magyar unveils Tisza blueprint: 16 ministries, purge of “bones in the closet” – and a bid to freeze EU penalties