End of an era? A new poll shows PM Orbán’s popular support has reached a historic low
The IDEA Institute has reported that popular support for Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has reached a historic low. According to their latest poll, conducted earlier this month, the Tisza Party, led by Péter Magyar, is now 9% ahead of Orbán’s governing coalition. This marks an unprecedented shift in Hungary’s political landscape, as Orbán’s Fidesz has dominated the polls for nearly two decades.
Orbán’s Fidesz was leading the polls for nearly two decades
The last time Fidesz lost a general election was in 2006, during the parliamentary elections when former Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány’s Socialist Party and its liberal allies defeated Orbán’s alliance. Since September 2006, Fidesz has consistently led opinion polls until 2024, when the Tisza Party’s support first surpassed Fidesz in the latter half of the year.
Even though Fidesz won the 9 June European parliamentary elections with a significant advantage, the number of pollsters measuring a straggling Orbán team is growing. The latest poll highlighting Fidesz’s considerable lag was conducted by the IDEA Institute. According to Telex, the pollster reported that Fidesz currently holds 26% support among the Hungarian population, compared to the Tisza Party’s 33%.
Tisza leads Fidesz by 9%
The figures are even more concerning when focusing on voters who would cast their ballots and can choose from the political parties. In this context, Tisza garnered 45%, while Fidesz stands at 36%. According to the IDEA Institute, two other parties could surpass the threshold if the general election were held this Sunday. The far-right Our Homeland party would secure 7%, while Gyurcsány’s Democratic Coalition would achieve 5% (the electoral threshold in Hungary is also 5%). Meanwhile, the Two-Tailed Dog Party, polling at 3%, would fail to send MPs to parliament.
.IDEA also reported that the proportion of undecided voters has decreased significantly, dropping from 37% in late 2024 to 26% in January 2025.
The turning point
Telex compared the results of various pollsters and identified a turning point in support for Orbán and the Tisza Party in November, when Tisza overtook Fidesz. While Tisza has been attracting an increasing share of the popular vote, they have effectively dismantled the rest of Hungary’s left-liberal opposition. Only the far-right Our Homeland has managed to maintain its voter base.
The Orbán government plans to introduce new financial aid measures, along with increased allowances and tax benefits, in 2025. They are also aiming to secure the release of frozen EU funds and attract foreign investment to bolster the Hungarian economy. These measures are intended to maximise their support ahead of the 2026 general election. Meanwhile, Péter Magyar has continued to draw public attention to allegations that the Orbán administration is “robbing” the people and mismanaging the country. Experts emphasise that Fidesz’s mobilisation capabilities remain unparalleled, as do its financial resources and communication strategies.
The latest IDEA Insitute poll was conducted through online questionnaires and has been deemed representative. The sample size was 1,500, with a margin of error of ±2.3%.
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