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Péter Magyar’s party surge in new poll, but PM Orbán may keep his seat even if suffering defeat – here’s how
April’s election could shatter records with sky-high turnout and a nail-bitingly close finish. The latest poll, commissioned by left-leaning daily Népszava from the Publicus Institute, shows the flag leaning heavily towards the Tisza Party – yet one of Hungary’s top political pundits insists Fidesz might still have a lifeline, even if they lose. Remarkably, the economy’s upbeat numbers are backing Orbán’s staying power, despite four years of stagnation or outright slump.
This Népszava-ordered poll conducted by Publicus was taken after the government’s massive pre-election giveaway spree: armed forces got their weapon bonuses, pensioners pocketed an extra half-month’s payout, family tax breaks swelled, and more mums qualified for income tax exemptions. The only promise left dangling? A hefty gross 152,000-forint bonus for teachers (net 100,000 forints) – its impact remains a mystery.
Even so, Publicus clocked a whopping Tisza lead, forecasting turnout as high as 84% – meaning the Hungarian parliament might boil down to just three parties. Among all adults, Tisza leads 35-30; sure voters shift it to 40-35; and committed party backers? A thumping 47-39, nearly 10 points. The big two’s fans are locked in too: 89% and 88% vow to vote no matter what.
Publicus predicts a three-party parliament, with Mi Hazánk scraping in at 5-7%. No dice for DK or the Two-Tailed Dog Party crossing the 5% hurdle.
What boosts Tisza’s win odds?
- On one hand—and most compellingly—the public opinion polls themselves: since 2006, there’s never been a moment when Fidesz hasn’t dominated the surveys, and by a mile at that. That’s why Orbán had to ditch his usual playbook and go head-to-head with Péter Magyar in open confrontation. Some analysts reckon this could even escalate to a full-blown prime ministerial debate.
- Half of those polled would cheer if Orbán toppled; just over a third if he hangs on.
Excellent article that clearly illustrates the connections! So let’s wait and see whether Orban ends up being kicked out of the EU or whether Hungary dares to make a new start.
Did you miss, that Mi Hazánk stated most clearly, they won’t form a coalition?
No wonder, considering how cenzured they are.
But in the case Tisza and Fidesz won’t get a 50%, a minority government would form.
But because the Parliament chooses the government both sides would still need to lobby at Mi Hazánk to vote for them.
This means, Tisza either will be forced to abandon their foreign patrons and represent real Hungarian interests (meaning: confront Ukraine and the Commieshion), which is impossible for them, or Fidesz will give them promises on becoming more souvereigntists.
Either way, this is a mute point. Fidesz will need to move more against the EU/Ukraine regardless, and it’s impossible for Tisza to win.
Tisza will dissolve, because the promised nevereverland didn’t come, and Mi Hazánk will be the main opposition.
And in 2030 the election will be: Soft anti-Eu, or Hard anti-Eu.
“Peace!”
“No war!”
I wonder when our Politicians will tell “Hungarian Families!” their energy prices will be hiking due to the actions of BFF Mr. Trump? Should go down a treat.
Keep dreaming. Shoulds, coulds, and mights are all just speculation. Wait for the election, then we’ll see who won and whether coalitions are possible and will be formed. Nothing is as fleeting as a politician’s post-election promise.
This is typical of conspiracy theorists; they can’t tolerate uncertainty. Everything has to be explainable now and for the future, even if it’s actually impossible. That’s why these people often have completely incoherent ideas, because there has to be an explanation, and immediately, not a month later.
They need a mental framework, otherwise they would lose their footing, and they treat it as if it were reality. The great self-confidence they display is actually very weak. That’s why they develop a concept that helps them believe they can control their environment.
But life consists of a constant succession of uncertainties. When these people are dead, they will probably still try to convince the devil, if he exists, of their point of view.
But very few things in life can be predicted. Life is always uncertain. As the saying goes, “Predictions are difficult, especially about the future” (Mark Twain).
Orban is a scared bunny rabbit who has been afraid to debate anyone after one went poorly for him many years ago. When he makes speeches his audience is composed of hand picked people who have registered in advance to make sure they are supportive. He cannot face Peter Magyar in a debate because Magyar will go through all of the corruption Orban is completely neck deep in. Orban will face open accusation of criminality in a public forum. The audience will be able to compare the two candidates side by side and Orban will look absolutely bad.