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PM Orbán in trouble? Another poll shows that he will lose his seat in 2026
Based on the latest poll of Závecz Research, 55% of Hungarians would like a government change, while only 38% would say that PM Orbán should continue his work. Furthermore, 40% of those who promise to participate in the next elections would choose Péter Magyar’s Tisza Party, while Orbán’s Fidesz lags behind with 35%.
New poll says that PM Orbán will lose his seat next spring
According to Závecz Research, the upcoming Hungarian Parliament will contain only two more parties. Former PM Gyurcsány’s Democratic Coalition will receive 7%, and far-right Our Homeland (Mi Hazánk) is supported by 6% of the electorate. Momentum Movement stands at 4%, below the 5% threshold. Závecz asked 1,000 electors between 16 and 25 March. The margin of error is 3.2%.
According to Závecz’s estimates, the number of Tisza supporters is 2.3 million, while the number of Fidesz supporters is 2.1 million. Péter Magyar’s Tisza is especially popular among people under 40 and those who are highly qualified and/or live in cities. Meanwhile, Fidesz’s lead is significant among people having only an elementary-level education, 35% vs 22%. Among university decree holders, that rate is 22% vs 30%.
According to Telex, the support of Tisza and Fidesz met in November 2024, and Péter Magyar’s lead has become unquestionable concerning popular votes ever since. Fidesz was at the top concerning popular votes in all polls between 2006 and November 2024.
Fidesz can still win in the villages
However, one should know that the Hungarian election system is a mixed one, in which MPs are elected in constituencies and from party lists. Unlike the German version of that hybrid system, there is no compensation for the losing side. What’s more, extra votes not needed to win in a constituency are added to the party lists.
Therefore, if Fidesz can win the majority of the rural constituencies (as in 2010, 2014, 2018 and 2022), they will have a majority or even a supermajority. Maybe that is why Péter Magyar and Former PM Gyurcsány are on a campaign tour. Gyurcsány visits small villages, which have not seen a politician for decades. Magyar follows a stricter route and would like to visit at least all the medium-sized settlements to meet his supporters. Based on his social media videos (the forums are broadcast live on his Facebook), large crowds wait for him everywhere, regardless of the weather.
For example, here is a video from Sárbogárd, a settlement with 11.5 thousand inhabitants:
Tax reductions, increasing allowances
Meanwhile, the Orbán cabinet made multiple promises concerning tax reductions, and increasing allowances e.g. in the SME sector and for pensioners and villages. Furthermore, they keep saying that both Tisza and the DK are pro-war, while they are on the side of peace in Ukraine. Orbán also says that only Fidesz would protect Hungary’s sovereignty. We shall see what that money distribution and fearmongering will be enough for in the next elections.
Read also:
Send Orban to exile in Moscow.
How about we send you to Kiev?
“Sorry,” kiyeeeeeev or whatever.
“Democratic Coalition will receive 7%, and far-right Our Homeland (Mi Hazánk)…”
What makes Mi Hazank “far-right” but D.K. not “far-left,” precisely?
Why does Mi Hazank “need” to be labeled as anything but D.K. does not?
This tired old playbook is fooling no-one anymore, guys.
As far as Fidesz, after so many years fatigue has set in. It’s inevitable. Plus the relentless foreign anti-Orban propaganda that the “highly qualified” are just about smart enough to access but not smart enough to see through.
Are these not the same articles published before the last election. Can anyone even remember the name of the previous opposition candidate. Just think of Magyar’s family history, I would only vote for a person that supports and treats women as people.