Tripling gas bills? Analysts debunk Orbán’s dramatic claims
PM Orbán has issued alarming warnings about soaring gas bills should the EU move to ban Russian energy imports. Citing figures that suggest utility costs could more than triple, Orbán’s remarks have sparked concern among households. Yet energy analysts and recent studies paint a very different picture…
Would energy prices skyrocket?
As Válasz Online writes, PM Viktor Orbán has recently sounded an alarm over a potential spike in household energy prices, linking it to a possible EU-wide ban on Russian gas imports. Speaking on Kossuth Radio, Orbán claimed that a proposal driven by Ukraine and backed by the European Commission would significantly increase utility bills. He even presented a visual example suggesting that the average household gas bill could more than triple from HUF 16,000 (EUR 39,61) to HUF 54,000 (EUR 133,68). Following a high-level meeting that excluded the energy minister, Orbán announced that from September, utility bills would display the hypothetical extra costs if Russian gas were to be cut off.
Orbán vs. experts
However, energy experts and recent studies suggest Orbán’s claims are significantly overstated. Under the EU’s current plan, the deadline for ending long-term contracts with Russian suppliers is set for 2027. This gives Hungary a buffer of over two years before any real supply changes would be felt. Moreover, market forecasts indicate that global gas prices are expected to fall over the coming years due to rising LNG production capacity in the US, Qatar, and Africa. Countries like Austria, which have already transitioned away from Russian gas, have not experienced such drastic price surges, casting doubt on Orbán’s apocalyptic projections.
No discounted gas
Economic and energy analysts argue that Hungary is not receiving discounted gas from Russia; rather, the state is absorbing part of the cost to keep residential prices low. A study by Budapest’s REKK think tank suggests that a total switch from Russian gas could lead to a modest 10–20% increase in gas prices at most, far from the 337–400% rise Orbán warned of. These potential increases could be further cushioned by state subsidies or tax adjustments. Experts say the cost difference could even out across Europe by 2030 as alternative supply routes become fully operational.
You’re not paying for just the gas
Finally, it’s important to consider how household bills are actually structured. Less than 53% of a typical gas bill is the cost of the gas itself; the rest covers system usage fees, taxes, and VAT. This means that even in a worst-case scenario, the actual increase in a household’s gas bill would likely be in the range of 6.6–13%. Such figures stand in stark contrast to Orbán’s dramatic warnings, raising questions about the motives behind his messaging and the true extent of the potential impact on Hungarian consumers.
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