Even pro-government forecast denies Fidesz supermajority with Mi Hazánk as rival polls predict Tisza landslide

With just days to go before Hungary’s 12 April parliamentary election, sharply conflicting seat projections are painting radically different pictures of the country’s political future.

The latest forecast from the government-aligned Nézőpont Institute suggests Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz-KDNP could still retain an outright parliamentary majority with 109 seats, enough to keep Orbán in office for another term.

However, independent polling and alternative seat models continue to point in the opposite direction, with some suggesting Péter Magyar’s Tisza Party could be heading for a comfortable victory instead. Reuters reported this week that 21 Research measured Tisza on 56% among decided voters versus 37% for Fidesz, underlining just how divided Hungary’s polling landscape has become.

Nézőpont: Fidesz ahead, but no two-thirds even with Mi Hazánk

Nézőpont’s latest mandate estimate attempts to translate both constituency-level expectations and party-list voting into the 199-seat National Assembly.

Its central forecast is:

• Fidesz-KDNP: 109 seats
• Tisza Party: 80 seats
• Mi Hazánk: 8 seats
• Roma minority list: 1 seat
• Independent Ákos Hadházy: 1 seat

The institute expects Fidesz to win 66 of Hungary’s 106 single-member constituencies, while Tisza could take 39, with Hadházy projected to win one constituency as an independent backed by the opposition camp.

One of the most politically important conclusions of the forecast is that Fidesz would still fall short of a two-thirds constitutional supermajority.

Even more notably, Nézőpont argues that Fidesz would still not reach the two-thirds threshold even if Mi Hazánk informally supported it and the minority seat were added to the bloc.

That finding matters because it would significantly limit Orbán’s room for constitutional or institutional changes in the next cycle.

• Could Hungary’s radical opposition Mi Hazánk step aside for Fidesz? Claims of behind-the-scenes talks surface

How the forecast was calculated

The model assumes an exceptionally high 75% domestic turnout, equivalent to roughly 5.7 million valid votes, but still considers an 80% turnout unlikely.

On the national list, Nézőpont projects:

• Fidesz: 46%
• Tisza: 40%
• Mi Hazánk: 8%

For postal votes from ethnic Hungarians abroad, the institute estimates a much stronger Fidesz performance:

• Fidesz: 86%
• Tisza: 12%
• Mi Hazánk: 2%

The projection also heavily factors in Hungary’s complex fragment vote compensation system, where “surplus” and losing constituency votes are added to party lists via the d’Hondt method.

This is one of the key reasons why even relatively small shifts in constituency results can dramatically reshape the final parliamentary balance.

Independent polls tell a very different story

The most striking contrast comes from the 21 Research Centre’s latest polling, which places Tisza far ahead nationally.

Using 24.hu’s seat calculator assumptions, that model would produce:

• Tisza Party: 129 seats
• Fidesz-KDNP: 64 seats
• Mi Hazánk: 6 seats

While analysts caution that such seat projections remain estimates without full constituency polling, the gap between the two scenarios shows just how much Hungary’s mixed electoral system can strengthen local-level uncertainty.

In practical terms, the election could still hinge on dozens of marginal constituencies decided by very narrow vote differences.

Mi Hazánk’s growing importance for Fidesz

The role of Mi Hazánk has become increasingly important in endgame election calculations.

Although party leader László Toroczkai has ruled out formal cooperation, analysts say the far-right party could still become a de facto kingmaker in a fragmented parliament, especially if the final result produces a narrow Fidesz majority or near-deadlock.

Political Capital analysts cited by Telex argue that Fidesz may now be pursuing a “Plan B” strategy, encouraging Mi Hazánk supporters to back Fidesz candidates locally while still voting for their own party list nationally.

Such tactical messaging suggests that the governing party sees vote-splitting on the right as a genuine risk in close constituencies.

A final week defined by uncertainty

The competing projections reflect a deeper reality of the 2026 election: Hungary’s race is highly volatile despite the appearance of strong national polling trends.

While most independent institutes currently show Tisza in the lead, the electoral map, constituency boundaries, turnout patterns and overseas votes could still allow Fidesz to outperform national numbers.

That means the real battle may not be over who wins the popular vote, but how efficiently each side converts support into seats.

With eight days remaining, Hungary is heading towards one of its most unpredictable elections in decades.