Putin said he would tear Hungary away from NATO, but how would PM Orbán act?
In an ultimatum before the start of the invasion of Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin spoke clearly about his aims in Eastern Europe concerning even Hungary. He wrote that NATO should stop expanding eastwards and return to its pre-May-1997 borders, which would mean withdrawing even from Hungary. Zsolt Németh, the Fidesz chairman of the Hungarian Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee, said if we were not NATO members, we would have to defend the country against a Russian attack.
Russia would challenge Hungarian sovereignty, says Orbán’s politician
Zsolt Németh talked in May about such concerns at a conference of the Hungarian Atlantic Council (MAT), saying that Russia would not like to invade Hungary. Instead, they would like to have a say in what Hungary does, how the country chooses its allies, what they represent in international forums and from where they buy weapons. Németh concluded that Russia would challenge Hungarian sovereignty if it could, but NATO, which is a defensive alliance, protects Hungary from becoming a victim of Moscow again.
PM Orbán and his government regularly say that if the Western bloc considered Putin’s rightful security concerns, the war in Ukraine would not have started. However, we know what Putin demanded from the “West” and that it would be catastrophic for Hungary if we agree with Zsolt Németh, who is also a member of Fidesz and always sits beside PM Orbán during the latter’s address at the free summer university of Tusványos in Romania.
NATO should withdraw from Hungary, said Putin
The Russian president “spoke” plainly in two documents, which can be regarded as ultimatums before the invasion of Ukraine. On 17 December, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs published the demands in the form of two draft treaties with NATO and the U.S., proposing limits on their influence and activities in Europe. They gave only one month for response, including even the Christmas and end-year festivities.
Among Putin’s demands were the end of further NATO enlargement, a ban on deploying intermediate-range missiles in areas from where they could reach Russian territories, and a ban on NATO military activity in Ukraine, Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, or Central Asia. Moreover, it would have also banned the deployment of forces or weapons in countries that joined the alliance after May 1997. In practice, that would have meant NATO’s withdrawal from Hungary.
Russian security claims should not be forgotten
On his “peace mission” in July, PM Orbán talked about the Russian security claims and the distance between those demands and NATO’s willingness to comply with them. But the distance is not insurmountable, the Hungarian prime minister believed then. He said the parties should reach an agreement that guarantees peace, considers Russia’s security demands and is acceptable to NATO.
Some Hungarian politicians are continuously slamming the West for not providing help for the Hungarian anti-Soviet freedom fighters in 1956. The West stuck to its agreement with the Soviets concerning the division of most of the world into spheres of interest. And in that partition, Hungary was part of the Soviet bloc.
Great powers and their spheres of interest?
It seems the Hungarian government would support such a partition again, which would imply that some parts of Eastern Europe (e.g. Ukraine or part of it) are “untouchable” because they are Russian spheres of interest. However, that initiative could mean that, in the long run, Hungary will also fall into the hands of Russia (again). President Putin does not even try to hide that regaining (some) control over Eastern European states is part of his plan and demands.
That is something we should consider before the foreseeable, Trump-initiated peace talks. The vast majority of the Hungarians are pro-EU and pro-NATO, and they would never accept becoming part of the Eastern bloc again. It might be comforting that the Orbán cabinet also regularly highlights that Hungary is and will remain a NATO and EU member despite all quarrels.
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