Expert: Aggressive Russian provocations on the Hungarian border are probable if Russia wins
Could Russia mean a danger to the Hungarian border’s peace? Security expert Ferenc Kaiser warns that while the chances of a full Russian occupation of Ukraine are slim, the consequences would be dire for Europe. Hungary could find itself on the wrong side of a new “Iron Curtain”. In addition, the Hungarian border would be faced with increased Russian provocations. Additionally, many ethnic Hungarians in Transcarpathia might flee due to Moscow’s harsh treatment of minorities.
As RTL writes, the chances of Russia winning the war are quite low. However, if it does happen, the aftermath would be catastrophic for Europe, including Hungary. Ferenc Kaiser, security and defence policy expert, and Associate Professor at the National University of Public Service, told RTL what Hungarians should fear if the worst does happen.
Apocalyptic outlook
Lavrov and Szijjártó. Photo: FB/Szijjártó
As tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalate, there is growing concern about what would happen if Russia were to fully invade Ukraine. According to the expert, the situation could turn apocalyptic, with over ten million Ukrainian refugees fleeing to Europe and Ukraine itself being left almost empty.
If Russia were to take control of Ukraine, it would need a lot of people to keep order. Russia would likely try to make everyone in the area act more Russian and erase Ukrainian identity. There is even a worry that Russia might commit terrible acts like genocide or ethnic cleansing, based on past events, like what happened in Bucha.
Tension at the Hungarian border
For Hungary, this would mean suddenly having Russia as a neighbour. “We would now find ourselves on the western side of the Iron Curtain in this new Cold War,” says Kaiser. There would likely be a lot of tension along the Hungarian border, with Russia trying to provoke Hungary, as they have done with Poland, Finland, and the Baltic states.
A threat for Hungarians living in Transcarpathia?
Even though Hungary seeks constructive cooperation with Russia, the threat of aggression from Russia is still real. Many Hungarians living in Transcarpathia, a region of Ukraine with a Hungarian minority, might feel they have to leave because of how harshly Russia might treat them compared to Ukraine.
While Ukraine has had its problems with treating minorities fairly, they are nothing compared to what Russia might do. So, it is understandable why many Hungarians in Transcarpathia might choose to leave their motherland if things got bad. Thus, in addition to provocations on the Hungarian border, Transcarpathian Hungarians might also be in danger.
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14 Comments
Tsa,,, so now which side are we on… I thought there were good relations between OV and his bro Puti? Don’t want him as a neighbor but don’t help to stop. Confusing?
Ah yes the peacock dance. Will Puti be impressed?
What do you base yourself on to say Russians don’t treat minorities well? They certainly are playing games with the Georgians but more to avoid them going Nato than bc they are a (former) minority of the USSR. The communist tradition was to be cordial with minorities and when Stalin showed up he was a prick with anyone…
Hungary does not border on Russia. Narrative does not make sense.
‘Hungary does not border on Russia. Narrative does not make sense.’
It would if you read the narrative and knew history, but who needs that in a post truth world?
If Russia prevailed in Ukraine then Russian troops, by logic, would be at the Hungarian border; but such a scenario is not an issue for Hungary nor you, a NATO member too?
Picking a guy out of crowd and say that his opinion is an expert’s opinion sounds a bit strange. Especially after that “expert” says a real nonsense regarding treating minorities in Russia.
The scenario described above is something that Orban is working hard to achieve for his master Putin. The Hungarians who don’t realize this and regard Putin’s Russia and the actions Fidesz does to assist Russia as no threat are complete idiots.
Associate professor is hardly a “guy picked from the crowd”. And its fairly easy to find abundance of reliable information about minority persecution in Russia by googling for example “russian minorities oppression”.
Its a grim prediction in the article. I hope Ukraine perseveres and protects us from war mongering Russia.
Ostanus, as for the search “Russian minorities oppression” I see the sources that are not trustworthy and usually are trying to describe everything that happens in Russia in black colors. From my perspective it would be better to analyze various sources including those who are in the country of Russia. And then the picture will be much more clear.
As for that associate professor, unfortunately his researches are theoretical only. There are plenty of that type of scientists who are performing their work being far away from the reality. This is exactly the case, in my opinion.
Does anyone who thinks sources of information from Russia are in any way reliable not realize that Vladimir Putin is an ex KGB man? Are people actually that blind and that enamoured with Russian propaganda? Did anyone not pay attention to the Russian government disinformation put out before their invasion of Ukraine claiming that they had no intention of attacking Ukraine and that it was all Western “hysteria”? Did people not actually pay attention to Russian propaganda connected to the events prior to and following the Moscow terrorist attack? Did people actually miss the US warning weeks prior to the attack stating that an attack was imminent on a crowded venue such as a theatre or concert hall? Did people not pay attention to the Russian response that this warning was just Western “intimidation”? Do people actually believe the Russian government’s assertion that the attack was organized by the West and Ukraine? Are people that stupid that they trust anything coming out of the Russian government and its’ controlled media?
Prior to WWII, Hungary had a peace treaty almost with every country in the world. At the end of WWII, US, France, Italy, etc., happily handed central Europe to Russia. Russia occupied Hungary for 40 years and ruled Hungary with the cooperation of Hungarian communists. Many senior Hungarian still shudder when they talk about those times. Many members of the Russian Army were Ukrainians.
I can understand Hungarian’s dislike Russians. However, the west also had a hand in the mess.
In 2014 there was a civil war in Ukraine due to the oppression of Russian minority. Not a surprise, Ukrainians do not get along with other ethnic groups, murdered thousands of Polish people due to their ethnic background.
Hungarian ethnic population did not and does not fare better. The Hungarian government feeds ethnic Hungarians in Ukraine, send presents to Hungarian children, rebuild churches destroyed by Ukrainians. Zelensky also took away the Hungarians right to speak Hungarian on the streets in Ukraine; young people are beaten up by Ukrainian police if they hear the ethnic language.
I do not know about Russian oppression of minorities, but Ukrainians certainly oppress all minorities. Unlike the FIDESZ Government, Polish, Romanian or Moldavians are afraid to speak up scared of offending President Biden; President’s Uncle Boise eaten by cannibals when his airplane crashed in the ocean.
Larry, great speech. I can say the same regarding the propaganda from the opposite side. Or all western sources of information are a priori reliable and trustworthy?
Moreover, the saying “sources of information from Russia” is not equal to “official Russian media”. JFYI.
Russia sure has great scientists and scholars. But it is a bit hard to imagine any scholar living in Russia to publish any kind of critique against any policy that Kremlin has set or anything that might sound negative against Russian government, for example anything about Russia oppressing minorities and drafting minorities to the special military operation against their will. Consequences could be harsh, or at least so I have read from western media. Maybe its just false news in western media that you can´t openly criticize Russian government and Russian military. I´d love to read some reliable and trustworthy “sources of information from Russia”. Maybe someone can link a few of these trustworthy sources of information from Russia?
Russia is a closed society where people have been jailed for saying that there was a war in Ukraine rather than a “special operation”. Protest against the war is forbidden and of course not allowed in the media. The state in Western countries does not have control over mainstream media as in Russia and now Hungary. If that was the case in the US then Fox News would have been shut down on day one by Joe Biden. Give me a break. It’s a waste of time explaining the obvious here to anyone who is blind. People will get what they deserve if they let Russian propaganda influence their decisions.
Maria von Theresa please explain to me how the US et al would have forced Stalin and his Red Army to leave Hungary after he occupied it in 1945. Whoever controlled the ground controlled the country and there was no way western armies could take ground to the east of Germany. You have to occupy Germany first. You actually blame the West for Russian oppression rather than blame Russia. Are you serious? What planet do you live on?