Expert: Aggressive Russian provocations on the Hungarian border are probable if Russia wins

Could Russia mean a danger to the Hungarian border’s peace? Security expert Ferenc Kaiser warns that while the chances of a full Russian occupation of Ukraine are slim, the consequences would be dire for Europe. Hungary could find itself on the wrong side of a new “Iron Curtain”. In addition, the Hungarian border would be faced with increased Russian provocations. Additionally, many ethnic Hungarians in Transcarpathia might flee due to Moscow’s harsh treatment of minorities.

As RTL writes, the chances of Russia winning the war are quite low. However, if it does happen, the aftermath would be catastrophic for Europe, including Hungary. Ferenc Kaiser, security and defence policy expert, and Associate Professor at the National University of Public Service, told RTL what Hungarians should fear if the worst does happen.

Apocalyptic outlook

As tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalate, there is growing concern about what would happen if Russia were to fully invade Ukraine. According to the expert, the situation could turn apocalyptic, with over ten million Ukrainian refugees fleeing to Europe and Ukraine itself being left almost empty.

If Russia were to take control of Ukraine, it would need a lot of people to keep order. Russia would likely try to make everyone in the area act more Russian and erase Ukrainian identity. There is even a worry that Russia might commit terrible acts like genocide or ethnic cleansing, based on past events, like what happened in Bucha.

Tension at the Hungarian border

For Hungary, this would mean suddenly having Russia as a neighbour. “We would now find ourselves on the western side of the Iron Curtain in this new Cold War,” says Kaiser. There would likely be a lot of tension along the Hungarian border, with Russia trying to provoke Hungary, as they have done with Poland, Finland, and the Baltic states.

A threat for Hungarians living in Transcarpathia?

Even though Hungary seeks constructive cooperation with Russia, the threat of aggression from Russia is still real. Many Hungarians living in Transcarpathia, a region of Ukraine with a Hungarian minority, might feel they have to leave because of how harshly Russia might treat them compared to Ukraine.

While Ukraine has had its problems with treating minorities fairly, they are nothing compared to what Russia might do. So, it is understandable why many Hungarians in Transcarpathia might choose to leave their motherland if things got bad. Thus, in addition to provocations on the Hungarian border, Transcarpathian Hungarians might also be in danger.

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