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Tragic prospects: Snow may disappear from Hungary by the end of the century
Hungary is facing an increasingly alarming climatic reality: snowfall could largely vanish from the country by the end of the century, while prolonged droughts and water shortages become the defining features of future years. Recent meteorological data suggest that what once counted as an extreme anomaly is now turning into a persistent pattern.
After an exceptionally dry spring and summer, Hungary saw little improvement in autumn or the first month of winter. As Telex writes in its report, according to experts, the ongoing lack of precipitation is no longer a one-off event but part of a longer-term trend. Five of the past ten years have already been classified as extremely dry, raising serious concerns about water security, agriculture and ecosystems.
A warmer and drier autumn than usual
HungaroMet, Hungary’s national meteorological service, confirmed that autumn 2025 was both warmer and drier than the long-term average. The national average temperature reached 11.5°C, exceeding the 1991–2020 climate norm by 0.8°C. September was particularly warm, ranking as the eighth warmest since records began in 1901.
Rainfall figures paint an even bleaker picture. The country received just 130.1 mm of precipitation during autumn, around 18% below the long-term average. September and October were especially dry, with rainfall falling 31% and 40% short of normal levels, respectively. Although November brought slightly above-average precipitation, it was not enough to compensate for earlier deficits.
The situation varied significantly across the country. While parts of the Northern Hungarian Mountains and western border regions recorded more than 200 mm of rain, large areas of the Southern Great Plain received less than 70 mm over the entire autumn season.
Soil moisture at critical levels
The lack of rainfall has left soil moisture at dangerously low levels. In most parts of the country, drought conditions persist down to a depth of one metre, which is crucial for plant growth. In southern regions near the Serbian border, the soil is missing between 130 and 147 millimetres of water per square metre: equivalent to nearly three months’ worth of average autumn rainfall.
Such conditions pose serious risks to agriculture, forestry and natural habitats, and increase the likelihood of further heatwaves and crop failures in the coming years.
Rivers under pressure: Danube and Tisza at risk
Hungary’s water crisis is compounded by conditions beyond its borders. The snowpack feeding the Danube and Tisza river basins is currently near record lows, according to data cited by Időkép from the National Water Directorate.
Although two cyclones brought snowfall at the end of November, around half of that snow had already melted by mid-December. Normally, snow accumulation increases during winter, providing a crucial reserve for spring and summer river flows. This year, that natural storage system is failing.
The outlook is particularly worrying for the Tisza River. In its upper catchment area above Szeged, snow-stored water is already close to historic minimum levels. Experts warn that winter replenishment is becoming increasingly dependent on isolated weather events rather than predictable seasonal patterns.
If dry conditions persist into the first months of next year, water levels in both the Danube and the Tisza could drop to critically low levels by summer, affecting shipping, agriculture and drinking water supplies.
A future with little or no snow?
Long-term climate research suggests the outlook for snowfall is equally troubling. According to a study by researchers at Eötvös Loránd University, average winter snowfall has already declined sharply across much of Europe. In Hungary, this means an annual decrease of around 10 centimetres compared to earlier climate periods.
Under an optimistic scenario (assuming global warming is limited to below 2°C by 2100 in line with the Paris Agreement), snowfall in Hungary could decline by up to 20 centimetres by the end of the century. Under a pessimistic scenario, where greenhouse gas emissions continue at current levels, the drop could reach 30–50 centimetres.
In practical terms, this would mean that in most years, Hungary would see little to no snowfall at all. Increased winter snowfall is expected only in northern Europe, including parts of Scandinavia.
A warning for the decades ahead
Experts stress that winter precipitation shortages may not feel immediately dramatic, but their consequences are delayed and cumulative. The absence of snow and rain in winter will be felt most acutely in spring and summer, when rivers, soils and ecosystems depend on stored water.
Without significant changes in global emissions and water management strategies, Hungary may be heading towards a future defined not by snowy winters but by chronic drought and increasingly unpredictable weather patterns.