The Hungarian forint weakened against the US dollar in June as geopolitical tensions and changing expectations for American interest rates boosted demand for the US currency. Despite the monthly setback, however, the forint remains one of the world’s strongest-performing currencies over the past quarter, year and 12-month period.
According to an analysis by Hungarian financial news outlet Portfolio, the forint’s June decline appears to have been a correction within a broader strengthening trend rather than the beginning of a sustained reversal.
Stronger dollar puts pressure on the Hungarian forint
The US dollar gained noticeably against several major currencies in June, reaching its strongest level against the euro in more than a year.
The rise followed the appointment of Kevin Warsh as chair of the US Federal Reserve, which helped reduce some of the uncertainty surrounding American monetary policy. Although US President Donald Trump had repeatedly called for lower interest rates, investors increasingly began considering the possibility that the Fed could raise rates to control inflation.
By the end of June, financial markets were pricing in between 25 and 50 basis points of monetary tightening before the end of the year.
Geopolitical developments also supported the dollar. The failure to establish a lasting ceasefire in the Middle East increased risk aversion among investors, while renewed tensions involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz strengthened demand for assets traditionally regarded as safe havens.
Such periods are usually challenging for emerging-market currencies, including the Hungarian forint. The forint consequently lost approximately 2.5 percent against the dollar during June.
Only a small number of currencies managed to strengthen against the US dollar during the month. The Egyptian pound gained around 5.7 percent, while the Philippine peso and Indian rupee recorded more modest increases.
Hungarian forint among the strongest currencies globally
Looking beyond the monthly figures, the forint’s performance remains exceptional.
During the second quarter of 2026, the Hungarian currency strengthened by 6.6 percent against the dollar. This made it the world’s second-best-performing currency during the three-month period, behind only the Egyptian pound.
The result was considerably stronger than those of Hungary’s regional competitors. The Polish zloty lost almost 1.5 percent during the quarter, while the Czech koruna was broadly unchanged.
The Hungarian forint has also appreciated by around 4.5 percent since the beginning of the year. Only the Brazilian real and Israeli shekel recorded larger gains over the same period. By contrast, the Polish and Czech currencies weakened, while the Turkish lira, Indian rupee and Romanian leu were among the poorest performers.
Over the past 12 months, the forint has strengthened by more than 9 percent. Portfolio notes that only the Israeli shekel has performed better over this longer period.
Election result and EU policy supported the currency
Several domestic developments contributed to the forint’s improvement.
During 2025, Hungary’s relatively high interest rates attracted investors using so-called carry trades. In these transactions, investors borrow money in a currency with lower interest rates and invest it in assets denominated in a currency offering higher returns.
The forint later received additional support as markets increasingly expected the Tisza Party to win Hungary’s April 2026 parliamentary election. The scale of the victory, which gave the new government a two-thirds parliamentary majority, exceeded many earlier expectations.
After the election, the new administration’s commitment to introducing the euro in the longer term and intensifying negotiations to unlock frozen European Union funding provided further support. The Hungarian forint temporarily approached the psychologically important level of HUF 300 to the dollar.
For foreign readers, Hungary is an EU member but does not currently use the euro. Access to previously suspended EU funds and progress towards eventual euro adoption are therefore closely watched by international investors.
Hungarin forint eychange: today – July 14, 2026
The pressure on the Hungarian forint continued on Tuesday, 14 July, when the euro rose above HUF 361, while the dollar traded close to HUF 317. The Hungarian currency was around 0.4 percent weaker against the euro than on Monday evening, according to Portfolio. The latest decline followed renewed tensions between the United States and Iran, which pushed Brent crude oil towards USD 85 per barrel and increased investors’ preference for safer assets.
What could determine the forint’s next move?
Domestic monetary policy will remain an important factor. The National Bank of Hungary, known by its Hungarian abbreviation MNB, reduced its base rate by 25 basis points at the end of June and indicated that two similar cuts could follow during the summer.
However, these reductions have largely been priced into the market, meaning that the central bank’s guidance has so far had a limited negative effect on the currency.
Investors will also monitor the government’s fiscal plans. The cabinet is expected to present an adjustment to the 2026 budget by the end of August, followed by its proposed 2027 budget by the end of October. Markets will pay particular attention to how the government plans to address an expected budget deficit of 7–8 percent of gross domestic product.
International developments may ultimately prove even more important. ING analysts cited in the Portfolio assessment believe the Federal Reserve may refrain from raising rates this year, contrary to current market expectations. A reversal in the dollar’s recent strength would create a more favourable environment for emerging-market currencies.
The forint’s outlook will also depend on inflation remaining low, EU funds beginning to flow and the government presenting a credible medium-term economic programme. June demonstrated that the currency is still vulnerable to global shocks, but its longer-term performance suggests that the broader strengthening trend has not yet been broken.
As we wrote today, Hungary’s central bank governor sends a strong message about the country’s financial position
If you missed it – Hungarians still cling to cash: many would rather lose money than put it in the bank – here’s why
