Concerning: Hungary’s population may fall below 6 million in decades; childlessness rises like a pandemic
If current trends persist, Hungary’s population could drop below 6 million by 2070, according to some estimates. The Orbán government has introduced various family incentives aimed at boosting birth rates, but these measures appear to have had limited success. The number of Hungarians choosing not to have children, or not planning to, is steadily increasing. Additionally, finding a partner has become more difficult, with many single women in the cities and single men in the countryside.
Rapid decline in Hungary’s population
According to Válasz Online, the Hungarian government’s family policies primarily benefit families already with two children by offering significant financial incentives for a third child. However, the real issue lies with the growing number of single individuals and couples who do not intend to have children.
In 2001, 6% of women under 50 and 10% of men under 50 stated they did not want children. By 2022, 32% of Budapest residents aged 40-49 were childless. The trend is evident: the number of Hungarians not planning to have children is increasing, particularly in larger cities and the capital.
In 2011, Hungary’s fertility rate dropped to 1.23, suggesting the population could halve within 1-2 generations. In response, the Orbán government introduced various support programmes, including tax benefits for families with children, preferential property loans, and additional benefits for working mothers. Consequently, the fertility rate rose to 1.59 by 2021.
However, the new births were predominantly in rural areas and among families already with two children. Government financial support often results in new housing in villages rather than in Budapest, where space is at a premium.
Rising childlessness
2021 marked a peak in Hungary’s fertility rate. The war in Ukraine, coupled with the energy and economic crises and inflation, led to a steep fall in the number of births. In the first half of 2024, the number of births fell by 14% compared to the first half of 2021. In Zala County, the decline was 25%, while in Budapest, it was 22%.
This decline is partly due to the increasing number of people choosing not to have children. Between 2011 and 2022, the number of childless individuals in the 40-44 age group rose by 72%, and by 250% in the 45-49 group. While Válasz Online presents detailed statistics, the overarching trend is clear: childlessness is on the rise in Hungary. Some individuals are infertile, others consciously choose not to have children, and a significant number never find a partner.
The decreasing fertility rate is driven more by increasing childlessness than by the low proportion of families with three or more children. Válasz Online likens the rise in childlessness to an epidemic sweeping through Hungary, a matter the Orbán government has not adequately addressed. As a result, there is no concerted effort to persuade those not planning to have children to reconsider, leading to the potential for Hungary’s population to fall below 6 million by 2070.
Role of migrants in stabilizing the pension system, healthcare, and economy
Migration has historically played a role in balancing Hungary’s population decline due to low fertility rates and emigration to Western countries. Many ethnic Hungarians from neighbouring countries have relocated to Hungary, and Válasz Online suggests that the next wave could be the Hungarian community from Transcarpathia, Ukraine.
Currently, there are over 104,000 Africans and Asians living in Hungary, a fourfold increase since 2011. Meanwhile, the Hungarian government’s rhetoric focuses on curbing immigration at the country’s borders and preserving jobs for Hungarian citizens.
Mismatch between single women and men
Válasz Online highlights a growing trend where women attain higher qualifications than men and consequently move to urban areas, while men remain in rural areas. This results in a mismatch where single women are concentrated in cities and single men in the countryside, leading to fewer opportunities for them to meet.
Hungary’s family support system is under strain given the low reproduction and fertility rates. If the government fails to address these pressing issues, there is a risk that the Hungarian population could significantly diminish within a few generations.
Read also:
- The 2022 census results are out: here are the most important details
- Brutal population decline: Hungarians are dropping like flies – read more HERE
Featured image: depositphotos.com
This is a catastrophe but the solution is not, cannot be, and MUST NOT BE to replace Hungarians with non-Hungarians.
The first step is figuring out the cause. Poverty is not it: People in decades and centuries past had much, much less but they had kids, often a dozen per family. It is–
1. Low fertility (due to processed foods, microplastics, and all kinds of chemicals that we breathe and ingest),
2. Endless anti-family and anti-children propaganda (kids are “bad for the environment,” why get married when you can “have fun” instead, why limit yourself to being a mom and dad when you can pursue a career and money and travel the world and be free!),
3. People’s selfishness (indeed, why SHOULD I chain myself to a spouse and kids and live for something bigger than myself!).
Start addressing the foregoing and we might, just might, turn the tide on this.
The sky is always falling? Actually, now days when people present statistics in almost anything they never lean on the positive. Instead, they call for panic. The world has been coming to an end since forever. Each generation will be told this. Panic breeds chaos. Providing hope allows for measured responses based upon thoughtful innovation. The fertility rate increase is actually unheard of and should. be celebrated. Hungary’s policies at first neutralized the decline –which everyone said was impossible. The fact that there was an increase provides hope and calm. It doesn’t require the same policies that is literally sinking parts of Europe and the UK. Society evolves through trends. Hungarians are able to figure things out. Incredibly resilient people. Making people aware is great. Making people panic and become desperate doesn’t help –just hurts. UK, France, Germany, Sweden, Spain will all crumble due to policies they will never recover from.
I don’t disagree that those are all reasons for the low rate of childbirth, but, the singular biggest reason today has to be the cost of housing and this has become a major problem across large parts of the world. Young couples are increasingly unable to find themselves an affordable (and stable) home and it’s unsurprising that in such an environment their willingness to have children is markedly lower. The past when people often had large families while living in dire circumstances was partly cultural and partly due to generally low expectations from life. It’s just not how people live in the developed world today. A mass program of government funded housebuilding for the exclusive benefit of newly married couples would work wonders, the kids would arrive all by themselves!
Poor orban. In the end Hungary will need mora and more immigrants. despite orban saying they were not required 😃
Hungary needs fresh blood. Immigrants from prolific regions of the world ( Africa and Asia ) are therefore more than welcome. It will increase the population and improve the country and the dna of future generations.
To the horror of religious conservatives, growing number of educated women have realized that there is much more to life than being a mother. Educated women can see that crumbling public healthcare, day care and basic education systems in Hungary do not provide a good basis for having and raising children. Rather not have children and live your life to the full. Travel, meet people, have amazing relationships and adventures. Have children only if you are fortunate enough to definitely have the financial capacity to provide good quality private services to you children. Don´t trust that your man will be there to provide the needed financials or to tend to the daily needs of children. No matter how much you try to romanticize family life, for many it can be like a prison sentence into poverty and crushed dreams if you do not have substantial financial assets acquired before having children.
Unless of course, you are willing to live a few decades in poverty, then go ahead and start a family without having financial assets for it. In glorious speeches everyone will congratulate you for raising the next generation, but don’t expect anyone to provide substantial financial aid for you and your children. Just hope for the best that your children will have teachers who are motivated even though they are severely underpaid and hope that your children are healthy and will not need to use scarce public healthcare resources.
Many will of course have children out of love for family life and that’s great. Probably these children will grow great even with low standard public education and healthcare. But having children should definitely not be pushed for everyone. It is perfectly OK to live a happy life without children.
With 80,000 births per year a life expectancy of 75 it’s not difficult to come up with a population estimate of 6 million (ignoring migration). The question is whether 80,000 is sustainable given the inevitable reduction in the number of young women.
It’s a shame the original article perpetuates the myth of the “total fertility rate” (TFR). TFR is a poor measure of fertility and much of the reduction in TFR from 1990 to 2010 was actually due to women having children at older age (increasing from 26 to 30 roughly). The bounce back in TFR was largely because women’s age at childbirth was only rising very slowly and nothing to do with actual fertility. There was mini baby boom in the Covid period but the birth rate in the last couple of years has dropped sharply. This may also be a short-term trend, we shall see.
The housing issue is another interesting area. While the population declines the number of “houses” (places where people can live) continues to increase. Of course this is simply telling us that average family sizes are getting smaller. A flat suitable for a family of 5 50 years ago now has a childless couple in it.
The demographic problem of population decline is a world-wide phenomenon except in Third World areas. The planet cannot support the population we currently have. The advent of oral contraceptives in the 60s was world changing and gave couples greater power to plan family size. Most developed countries face the huge financial burden of a lower proportion of working age people and it is putting pressure on the standard of living. Workers have to pay more taxes to fund the health care and retirement of a greater number of seniors. If you are a nation of emigrants rather than immigrants there is an even greater demographic pressure on your economy as your best and brightest leave Hungary to work in the West. Out of advanced economies it is the US which is seeing comparatively more moderate effects as its’ population slowly increases while the baby boom generation enters its’ senior years. The proportion of those 65 plus is anticipated to grow from 18% presently to 23% in 2054. Use of artificial intelligence and automation in general as well as seniors choosing to work later in life will lessen labour shortages.
Growing Global Infertility – This is another phenomenon which is occurring including in Hungary. I have just skimmed some articles on it but it strikes me as nature’s answer to overpopulation. A lot of men are shooting blanks.
Orban has made sure nobody in Europe cares if there are less Hungarians
Recommended read. Drafted in 2023 under the Spanish Presidency of the Council of the European Union – “Towards comprehensive social protection for families in Europe”:
https://coface-eu.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/OECD_Presentation.pdf
Interesting how much our Politicians manage to spend and how little there is to show for it? Other than nice billboards at the airport: “Pro Family Hungary!”. Obviously, making lots of noise and throwing money at the problem is not working… I could continue, however would rather have people read and draw their own conclusions.
The government worsens this because they support those families that couldn’t really afford lots of kids, yet still get 3-4+. They keep pumping me and others dry who do not yet have kids, because we want to have them responsibly: only as many as we can provide for and take care of with standards. Not giving birth to a 2nd and 3rd child when we don’t even own a home, have a huge loan, and certainly not getting one more for better loans, as many of the families I personally know did. Not to mention the absolutely ridiculous tax free system. If you’re a poor rabbit, basically I pay your share of society. Because your kids certainly will not end up as big gdp makers. Why and how can I even get one kid when currently I am not simply without help, but I am the one supporting the rabbits with my tax? I already have my own home, big enough for even 2 kids, but I’d still need a loan, but renovations would cost a home’s price. How will I send one kid to language classes, sports clubs, take them to museums, trips, buy him/her programming kits, robots, development toys, let alone two if my tax is used to pay off irresponsible 4 children families without a home? They don’t care that my kids would end up making twice as much gdp as the tax free mum’s 4 all together. Irresponsible parents are more likely to vote for them. This way I am discouraged to have even one kid, while their voters are kept supported, and persuaded to get more babies and they are supported even before they gave birth, so of course they will keep voting for them…