Concerning: Hungary’s population may fall below 6 million in decades; childlessness rises like a pandemic

If current trends persist, Hungary’s population could drop below 6 million by 2070, according to some estimates. The Orbán government has introduced various family incentives aimed at boosting birth rates, but these measures appear to have had limited success. The number of Hungarians choosing not to have children, or not planning to, is steadily increasing. Additionally, finding a partner has become more difficult, with many single women in the cities and single men in the countryside.

Rapid decline in Hungary’s population

According to Válasz Online, the Hungarian government’s family policies primarily benefit families already with two children by offering significant financial incentives for a third child. However, the real issue lies with the growing number of single individuals and couples who do not intend to have children.

In 2001, 6% of women under 50 and 10% of men under 50 stated they did not want children. By 2022, 32% of Budapest residents aged 40-49 were childless. The trend is evident: the number of Hungarians not planning to have children is increasing, particularly in larger cities and the capital.

In 2011, Hungary’s fertility rate dropped to 1.23, suggesting the population could halve within 1-2 generations. In response, the Orbán government introduced various support programmes, including tax benefits for families with children, preferential property loans, and additional benefits for working mothers. Consequently, the fertility rate rose to 1.59 by 2021.

However, the new births were predominantly in rural areas and among families already with two children. Government financial support often results in new housing in villages rather than in Budapest, where space is at a premium.

Rising childlessness

2021 marked a peak in Hungary’s fertility rate. The war in Ukraine, coupled with the energy and economic crises and inflation, led to a steep fall in the number of births. In the first half of 2024, the number of births fell by 14% compared to the first half of 2021. In Zala County, the decline was 25%, while in Budapest, it was 22%.

This decline is partly due to the increasing number of people choosing not to have children. Between 2011 and 2022, the number of childless individuals in the 40-44 age group rose by 72%, and by 250% in the 45-49 group. While Válasz Online presents detailed statistics, the overarching trend is clear: childlessness is on the rise in Hungary. Some individuals are infertile, others consciously choose not to have children, and a significant number never find a partner.

The decreasing fertility rate is driven more by increasing childlessness than by the low proportion of families with three or more children. Válasz Online likens the rise in childlessness to an epidemic sweeping through Hungary, a matter the Orbán government has not adequately addressed. As a result, there is no concerted effort to persuade those not planning to have children to reconsider, leading to the potential for Hungary’s population to fall below 6 million by 2070.

Role of migrants in stabilizing the pension system, healthcare, and economy

Migration has historically played a role in balancing Hungary’s population decline due to low fertility rates and emigration to Western countries. Many ethnic Hungarians from neighbouring countries have relocated to Hungary, and Válasz Online suggests that the next wave could be the Hungarian community from Transcarpathia, Ukraine.

Currently, there are over 104,000 Africans and Asians living in Hungary, a fourfold increase since 2011. Meanwhile, the Hungarian government’s rhetoric focuses on curbing immigration at the country’s borders and preserving jobs for Hungarian citizens.

Mismatch between single women and men

Válasz Online highlights a growing trend where women attain higher qualifications than men and consequently move to urban areas, while men remain in rural areas. This results in a mismatch where single women are concentrated in cities and single men in the countryside, leading to fewer opportunities for them to meet.

Hungary’s family support system is under strain given the low reproduction and fertility rates. If the government fails to address these pressing issues, there is a risk that the Hungarian population could significantly diminish within a few generations.

Read also:

• The 2022 census results are out: here are the most important details
• Brutal population decline: Hungarians are dropping like flies – read more HERE

Featured image: depositphotos.com

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