War in Ukraine: How long can Russia tolerate its dependency on China?
Russia’s economic room for manoeuvre is continuing to shrink as the country becomes increasingly reliant on the export of energy resources and metals – commodities that are now sold predominantly to China.
China apparently isn’t as good a partner as they thought
According to a recent assessment by Ukraine’s foreign intelligence service, this growing dependence leaves Moscow ever more vulnerable to shifts in Chinese market demand.
The report, published on the agency’s official website, states that bilateral trade between Russia and China fell notably in the first nine months of 2025. Total trade volume dropped to USD 163.6 billion, a 9.4 per cent decline compared with the same period the previous year.
The contraction affected both directions of trade: Chinese exports to Russia fell by 11.3 per cent to USD 73.6 billion, while Russian shipments to China dipped by 7.7 per cent to USD 90 billion.
Nobody wants to buy Russian energy anymore
The primary driver behind this downturn was the sharp fall in global energy prices. The value of Russian energy exports plummeted by almost 19 per cent – a loss of around USD 14 billion between January and September.
As the Kremlin’s state budget remains heavily dependent on revenues from oil and gas, such a drop leaves little room to compensate through other sectors.
Another factor was the abrupt collapse in demand for Chinese-made cars on the Russian market. Following record imports in 2024, sales plunged by 56 per cent this year, underscoring both market oversaturation and the weakening purchasing power of Russian consumers.
There are other difficulties, too
Logistical difficulties have further complicated the situation. During the autumn months, significant congestion built up along the Chinese–Kazakh border, slowing the movement of goods.
Transport costs surged as well: rail freight became 25 per cent more expensive, and road haulage costs rose by 35 per cent. Several maritime carriers – including China’s CStar Line and STF Shipping – also scaled back their routes to Russian ports due to financial restrictions, tightening supply routes even further.
According to Ukrainian intelligence, this combination of economic pressures leaves Moscow connected to China by a single “umbilical cord”. With such a high level of export dependence on Beijing, Moscow is becoming increasingly exposed to fluctuations in Chinese demand – a vulnerability that could deepen Moscow’s long-term economic reliance on its powerful neighbour.