Ukraine’s EU referendum in Hungary: why is Orbán’s costly push worth it?

An outside observer might think that Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s proposal to call a referendum in Hungary on Ukraine’s EU membership is unnecessary and unreasonable, especially given that the state’s budget is looking pretty bad due to the withholding of EU funds. Yet the PM and his staff have thought this through in many ways.
Recent poll
According to most people, the Orbán government is spending unbelievably large sums of money to shape its position on important issues and conflicts. One could say it is a government of opinion polls. Even in scandals, they have always reacted straightforwardly, the majority believe. And when it comes to taking action against a named enemy (Soros, migrants, Brussels), the government is even more willing to engage in the latest communications warfare.
They also have a strong stance on Ukraine’s EU membership; they have certainly been watching the public mood for a long time, and of course, the government’s opposition position on Ukraine is also biased by the government media. Medián’s latest poll proves that Fidesz wants to conduct a referendum with a clear majority, even without campaigning. If they continue to incite the public against Ukraine, they could be even more successful.
According to figures published by hvg.hu, most Hungarians oppose Ukraine’s EU membership. According to a poll conducted in early March, 33 percent are very opposed to Ukraine’s EU membership, while 23 percent are somewhat opposed, i.e. 56 percent are against it. 39 percent were in favour (11 very much in favour, 28 rather in favour), while 5 percent of citizens were against.
The proportion of supporters is not surprising, given the strong communication of the ruling Fidesz party, but even the Tisza, which is considered the strongest opposition party, does not favour Ukraine’s membership. Orbán has repeatedly explained why Ukraine’s EU membership would be a financial disaster for Hungary in an endlessly simplistic way. The less developed country, which has suffered severe damage in the war, would suck development funds away from Hungarians and would drain EU funds from domestic agriculture.
What is more interesting is that 39% of Hungarians support Ukraine’s membership of the EU without anyone in the public arguing for it. Yet it would have a positive effect for Hungary and Hungarians:
- Hungarian companies would have access to a new market, and it is a neighbouring country.
- The EU, which is lagging in international competition, would gain a vast, strategically and industrially important country with rare-earth elements and a strong agricultural sector.
- The dismantling of the border would be a lifeline for the Hungarians of Transcarpathia, allowing the development of their region. The Hungarian government has considered EU membership beneficial for all Hungarians living in cross-border areas. Still, it seems that there could be an exception in this case. In addition, the Ukrainians would also welcome the rapprochement of the two peoples better if we did not hold a referendum against Ukraine’s membership.
Interesting facts about the referendum
In Switzerland, referendums are held every quarter on issues that are decided by members of parliament in other countries, but this has never happened in Hungary.
In Hungary, parliamentary elections are expected in a year, in April 2026, and a referendum will be another mobilising event. Opinion polls suggest that Fidesz is in deep trouble, with Tisza close to or already ahead of the ruling party. Orbán has already started next year’s campaign by extending tax breaks, and the physical mobilisation of sympathisers seems to be what the referendum is trying to solve.
Evidently, the referendum will not be cheap: a campaign supported by the state budget needs a lot of posters and media space to promote companies close to the idea, all of this with billions of forints of taxpayers’ money.
As we wrote earlier today, Orbán’s cabinet said that the EU wants to keep Ukraine alive. This must not happen