Ukraine’s EU referendum in Hungary: why is Orbán’s costly push worth it?
An outside observer might think that Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s proposal to call a referendum in Hungary on Ukraine’s EU membership is unnecessary and unreasonable, especially given that the state’s budget is looking pretty bad due to the withholding of EU funds. Yet the PM and his staff have thought this through in many ways.
Recent poll
According to most people, the Orbán government is spending unbelievably large sums of money to shape its position on important issues and conflicts. One could say it is a government of opinion polls. Even in scandals, they have always reacted straightforwardly, the majority believe. And when it comes to taking action against a named enemy (Soros, migrants, Brussels), the government is even more willing to engage in the latest communications warfare.
They also have a strong stance on Ukraine’s EU membership; they have certainly been watching the public mood for a long time, and of course, the government’s opposition position on Ukraine is also biased by the government media. Medián’s latest poll proves that Fidesz wants to conduct a referendum with a clear majority, even without campaigning. If they continue to incite the public against Ukraine, they could be even more successful.
According to figures published by hvg.hu, most Hungarians oppose Ukraine’s EU membership. According to a poll conducted in early March, 33 percent are very opposed to Ukraine’s EU membership, while 23 percent are somewhat opposed, i.e. 56 percent are against it. 39 percent were in favour (11 very much in favour, 28 rather in favour), while 5 percent of citizens were against.
The proportion of supporters is not surprising, given the strong communication of the ruling Fidesz party, but even the Tisza, which is considered the strongest opposition party, does not favour Ukraine’s membership. Orbán has repeatedly explained why Ukraine’s EU membership would be a financial disaster for Hungary in an endlessly simplistic way. The less developed country, which has suffered severe damage in the war, would suck development funds away from Hungarians and would drain EU funds from domestic agriculture.
What is more interesting is that 39% of Hungarians support Ukraine’s membership of the EU without anyone in the public arguing for it. Yet it would have a positive effect for Hungary and Hungarians:
- Hungarian companies would have access to a new market, and it is a neighbouring country.
- The EU, which is lagging in international competition, would gain a vast, strategically and industrially important country with rare-earth elements and a strong agricultural sector.
- The dismantling of the border would be a lifeline for the Hungarians of Transcarpathia, allowing the development of their region. The Hungarian government has considered EU membership beneficial for all Hungarians living in cross-border areas. Still, it seems that there could be an exception in this case. In addition, the Ukrainians would also welcome the rapprochement of the two peoples better if we did not hold a referendum against Ukraine’s membership.
Interesting facts about the referendum
In Switzerland, referendums are held every quarter on issues that are decided by members of parliament in other countries, but this has never happened in Hungary.
In Hungary, parliamentary elections are expected in a year, in April 2026, and a referendum will be another mobilising event. Opinion polls suggest that Fidesz is in deep trouble, with Tisza close to or already ahead of the ruling party. Orbán has already started next year’s campaign by extending tax breaks, and the physical mobilisation of sympathisers seems to be what the referendum is trying to solve.
Evidently, the referendum will not be cheap: a campaign supported by the state budget needs a lot of posters and media space to promote companies close to the idea, all of this with billions of forints of taxpayers’ money.
As we wrote earlier today, Orbán’s cabinet said that the EU wants to keep Ukraine alive. This must not happen
Hungary organizes referendums for a few key reasons:
Legal and Constitutional Basis – Referendums are a formal part of Hungary’s political system and can be initiated by the government, the president, or citizens (if they collect enough signatures). They are a way to decide on major policy issues directly, rather than through parliamentary votes.
Political Strategy – The ruling party, especially under Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Fidesz, has used referendums as a political tool to reinforce its agenda, mobilize supporters, and shape public discourse. They often focus on controversial topics (e.g., migration, LGBTQ+ issues) that resonate with their voter base.
EU Relations – Some referendums have been used to signal resistance to EU policies. For example, the 2016 referendum on migrant quotas was a way for the government to push back against EU-imposed relocation schemes.
Are the Questions Objective?
Not always. Many referendum questions in Hungary are phrased in a way that reflects the government’s stance and encourages a particular response. They often contain emotionally charged or leading language.
For example:
2016 Migrant Quota Referendum:
“Do you want the European Union to be able to prescribe the mandatory settlement of non-Hungarian citizens in Hungary without the consent of the National Assembly?”
The wording emphasizes “mandatory settlement” and “without consent,” making it seem like a loss of sovereignty.
2022 Referendum on LGBTQ+ Issues in Schools:
Questions included phrasing like “Do you support the promotion of gender reassignment treatments to minors?”
The term “promotion” implies an active effort to persuade children rather than just informing them, making the question biased.
Effectiveness and Impact
Many of these referendums are non-binding or fail to meet the required turnout threshold (50% of eligible voters). However, they still serve as political tools to frame debates and justify government policies.
GenAI is correct. The obvious bias baked into the referendum questions Fidesz poses leads respondents making the questions a propaganda exercise rather than a legitimate exercise in obtaining true public opinion on an issue. On top of that you have very heavy state control of media which has been brainwashing the public with Fidesz viewpoints for many years now.
Children do not need to be INFORMED at school about such matters, that is the role of family members who support that child in every aspect we consider to be their obligation and right. The fact is that the gov’t most likely saw what was happening in places like the US & England & the Phillipeans where children are victimized to wonder about their sexual preference etc while they can’t even make decisions about what to eat or outfit to wear the next day…never mind a lifetime of being trapped in a decision that was promoted to them eby an adult who won’t be in their daily life in 10 or 30 yrs. So good on the government for ‘leading’ the public in understanding properly what they were voting for.
As for Ukraine, the people are educated, have good old fashione morals, are kind, gentle of nature and hard working. At least the ones who have been given permission to be here in Nova Scotia whom I have been getting aquainted with quite a bit in 20 months or so. AND there will be lots of jobs in Uk to rebuild, to invest for those in Hungary who are skilled, smart, looking to the future. Just do whatever you can to push Putin to adhere to reasonable agreements to full peace. He does not seem to understand that he is shaming Russia by his tactics & undermining the social progress that has been made since the fall of the Soviet Union. And in affect, murdering his own people. like the Chinese did during the Big Leap Forward and such nonsensicle ideologies, it is a criminal way to treat ones’ own people. And should not be condoned.