There are many scenarios regarding what the fourth wave of the coronavirus will bring.
Some people say that the new school year will result in the increased spread of Covid-19, but this wave is not going to be as severe as its predecessors. Others think that many people will get sick, but hospitals will be handling the situation better. Another possibility is that the number of cases and the number of patients will increase significantly, writes portfolio.hu. The Delta variant could also play a role in how the fourth wave will affect people. Earlier this summer, Béla Merkely, the rector of Semmelweiss University, said that
“Where vaccination against the coronavirus is as high as in Hungary, there will be no fourth wave.”
Many people try to speculate about the possible effects of the Delta variant. As Daily News Hungary wrote earlier, the new variant has been spreading since May. Out of the 393 samples examined by the National Public Health Centre, 253 contained the Delta variant. A new virus variant was also detected. This contains the Alpha (British) and the Delta (Indian) mutation.
The virus can spread in Hungary as there are 3-5 million people who might potentially get sick and 5-7 million people who are protected from the virus. This is due to the fact that
the virus has strong infectivity, and the level of flock immunity (when the virus spreads so slowly that it disappears from the population) develops at a protection rate of above 90%.
The Delta variant is associated with higher hospitalisations and is more dangerous for young people than previous virus variants, and unvaccinated people may face more severe consequences than in previous waves. Despite this overall negative outlook, hospitals will not be full, and the number of deaths will not be as high as in the past.
The vaccination of endangered groups, such as elders, is a significant factor in estimating how the pandemic will continue. In Hungary, the vaccination of vulnerable groups is not too high, even though some of the authorised vaccines are said to be less effective against new coronavirus variants.
Source: portfolio.hu, Daily News Hungary