Why did the Orbán-led Fidesz dominate the Hungarian general election?

According to Gábor Török, popular Hungarian political analyst, Fidesz has won Sunday’s general election with a greater advantage than anyone could have expected. But what are the reasons behind the extreme support and success?

If we look at pre-election polls and estimations, the support of the different parties was predicted more or less accurately – except for Fidesz, which exceeded expectations. The governing party received way more votes than four years ago, even though the repetition of that result would have been enough to win.

Since the change of regime, no Hungarian political party has won three elections in a row, especially with such a high rate of support.

Number 1: Not many people expected a turnout rate around 70%. And those who counted with this scenario were sure that it would favour the opposition. Fidesz has never won a general election with high turnout until now – and when it happened, it was sweeping. Hence, the current result gives a stronger legitimacy than they had in 2014.

Number 2: During the day, when the news about a record-breaking turnout flood the press, two counter-arguments were competing with each other. According to the first one, the opposition managed to call on undecided voters, while the others believed that it was actually Fidesz’s campaign which attracted new voters.

Moreover, the success lies in the well-organised, simplified, easily understandable and wide-spread campaign.

Fidesz’s significant advantage in resources – like the centralised press and overwhelming presence in public places – might have played an important role in the process.

Based on data, it seems like the party’s support grew in smaller villages, where traditional Fidesz-voters were joined by undecided voters who were probably convinced to vote on the grounds of protecting the country and fear of migrants.

Number 3: Data also shows that there are “two Hungarys” in 2018. On the one hand, there is a gap between the city and the countryside; on the other hand, there is a gap between political preferences.