Extensive secret poll indicates PM Orbán may win in 2026 again: is Péter Magyar in trouble?
Is Tisza’s lead across Hungary not as clear-cut as it seems? According to the findings of a massive survey, the ruling parties and Tisza are neck and neck nationally, with Fidesz projected to comfortably win 66 single-member constituencies if elections were held today. This contradicts all independent (non-government-affiliated) polls published since late last autumn. Yet Prime Minister Viktor Orbán appears to believe this reflects political reality. Is Orbán firmly in the saddle while Hungary is in trouble?
Why is Orbán so confident?
Since roughly last November, independent pollsters have indicated a significant lead for Tisza over the ruling parties. Although Tisza’s support plateaued over the summer while Fidesz managed a 2% uptick (as we reviously reported), all surveys continue to show Péter Magyar’s party holding a strong advantage and a realistic chance not only of winning the next election but also of governing with a two-thirds majority—an outcome seen as more likely than Orbán remaining in power.
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That is why it came as a surprise when the Prime Minister declared first in Tusványos and then again in Kötcse that 80 constituencies could turn orange once more next April. According to Magyar Hang, his confidence stems from an enormous government-commissioned poll, which surveyed 53,000 people—500 in each of the 106 constituencies—producing results deemed representative.
What did the mega-poll find?
- Fidesz can easily win 66 constituencies;
- Another 12 seats are within reach;
- Hence Orbán’s narrative of 80 constituencies;
- On proportional party lists, Fidesz and Tisza are tied at 37% each;
- Lastly, some 918,000 voters remain undecided but lean towards change. Fidesz believes it can still win them over.
What explains the significant difference at constituency level? According to Magyar Hang, it may be because Tisza dominates in urban areas while losing more narrowly in rural constituencies. This interpretation may be optimistic, but sources close to the ruling party insist that independent polling institutes rely on flawed databases.
What else is Orbán’s team counting on?
- Fidesz hopes to frame the election as a referendum: a choice between handing the country to a “horde of amateurs” or sticking with predictable, if imperfect, leadership (echoing the “unfinished nation” narrative).
- They expect future Tisza candidates to make numerous missteps ripe for exploitation—given that Magyar himself is skilled at avoiding traps.
- They argue Tisza’s recently announced primary system is a recipe for internal conflict, as each of the 105 constituencies will produce at least two disgruntled contenders.
- Rumours circulate of existing audio recordings targeting not only Magyar but also one of his key supporters, former Orbán government state secretary András Kármán.
- Finally, election-related giveaways have barely begun (3% loans, tax breaks, Hungarian Village Programme, etc.).
Expert: the premier is on the wrong track
According to Gábor Tóka, author of the Vox Populi blog, the Fidesz mega-poll suffers from several flaws:
- Results are inconsistent—for example, only a 9% Fidesz lead in Mátészalka, yet a weak opposition presence in Zugló.
- Measuring single-member constituencies effectively is nearly impossible.
- The sample is likely demographically skewed, favouring those most easily reachable during daytime—predominantly older voters. That introduces a strong pro-Fidesz bias, as multiple studies have shown the ruling party’s support is much higher among the elderly compared with Tisza.
What does the latest poll reveal?
Publicus generally reports a smaller lead for Tisza and tends to rate traditional left-wing parties higher than, for example, Median. Between 8–12 September, its survey of decided voters showed:
- Tisza: 46%
- Fidesz: 37%
- Democratic Coalition (DK): 7%
- Mi Hazánk: 6%
- Two-Tailed Dog Party (MKKP): 4%
These numbers would produce a four-party parliament next year.
Who would the Hungarians want prime minister?
Median’s latest survey, released yesterday, finds that more people still see Péter Magyar as better suited to be Prime Minister. However, his favourability rating has dipped by 3%, while the proportion viewing him as unfit has risen by 2%. Conversely, Orbán gained 3%, with 1% fewer respondents writing him off.
With such surveys, the trends matter more than the precise figures. And they point to summer as a turning point—marking a plateau in Tisza’s meteoric rise and the stabilisation of Fidesz’s and Orbán’s decline.
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