Breaking: Hungary’s population drops below psychological level for the first time since 1952
According to the latest data from the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH), Hungary’s population fell below a critical psychological threshold in October 2025 – a level not seen in more than 70 years. In the first ten months of the year, the country’s population decreased by over 42,000, and preliminary estimates suggest the total number of inhabitants has now slipped below 9.5 million.
Dramatic fall in the number of births
Between January and October, only 60,304 children were born – 7.1 percent fewer than in the same period a year earlier. Monthly statistics also hit record lows: before 2025, Hungary had never recorded fewer than 6,000 births in any 31-day month, yet this year it already happened in March, May and October. In October alone, 5,979 newborns were registered, 10 percent fewer than in the same month last year.
The total fertility rate continues to deteriorate as well. It dropped from last year’s 1.39 to 1.31, meaning that, on average, a woman would give birth to this many children over her lifetime – far below the 2.1 needed to maintain the population.
Fewer deaths, yet faster population decline
At the same time, the number of deaths decreased. Between January and October, 102,748 people died, 2.2 percent fewer than in the equivalent period of the previous year. In October, 10,333 deaths were recorded – a 6.8 percent drop year-on-year.
However, the improvement in mortality rates was nowhere near enough to offset the plunge in birth figures. Natural population decline reached 42,444 in ten months, marking a 5.7 percent increase compared to a year earlier.
Population below 9.5 million: a new era begins
As of 1 January 2025, Hungary had 9,539,502 inhabitants. The balance between births and deaths alone has now been sufficient to push the population below 9.5 million for the first time since 1952. While migration could still slightly influence the final figure, recent years show that this usually results in only a minor adjustment of a few hundred people – meaning the downward trend is certain to remain unchanged.
According to an analysis by Forbes.hu, year-end estimates make it “almost guaranteed” that Hungary’s actual population will stand at around 9.4 million.
More marriages in October, but an annual decline overall
Despite the record-low birth numbers, an interesting contrast emerged: more marriages took place in October than a year earlier. A total of 4,149 couples tied the knot, a 14 percent increase. Yet from January to October, there were still 390 fewer marriages altogether than in the same period last year.
Demographic situation likely to worsen further
The KSH’s 12-month rolling figures offer no sign of improvement either. Between November 2024 and October 2025, the number of births fell by 6.9 percent, while marriages dropped by 3 percent. Although deaths decreased, this was not enough to meaningfully slow the population decline.
Experts warn that persistently low fertility rates and the continued decline in births signal a deepening demographic challenge, one with long-term social and economic consequences that will become increasingly difficult to manage.
We’re heading for 72,000 births in 2025. Say (optimistically) life expectancy will be 80. 72,000 x 80 = 5.76 million. That’s where the population is heading (without migration). And even that is on the assumption that annual births hold up at 72,000.
Without migration you say. Well, it is a matter of time to have more and more people of philipines or venezuela (or countries that the government decided to let them come legally) to become hungarian citizens. Orban swore to not let hungary to becomes a country of immigrants, but the way i see it is, there is no way to avoid that. Not even being “pro family”
While Prime Minister Orbán’s government promotes pro-family policies, Hungary’s population continues to decline, highlighting a failure of these initiatives. This is compounded by the systemic corruption and the consolidation of an oligarchic system that benefits his inner circle. This is the most important factor of population decrease!.
I think that is true. A system where the rich get richer and the young couples don’t is not going to lead to a baby boom, not in the modern world. The pro-natalists are convinced that if you can only persuade young people to get married they’ll have loads of children. That idea isn’t working, at least not at the moment. Also policies that push up house prices are going to be a complete failure in the long run. Needs a rethink.
You can’t bribe people into having children. A few government support programs while welcome is not going to move the needle much. Society has changed and the fact that you also have low birth rates in more affluent Western societies (Hungary does not qualify as Western) tells you that throwing government money at couples isn’t going to change it. The only way population can be maintained is through immigration but there is no way you can get Hungarian nationalists to accept that. The country and the economy will shrink while the nationalists can revel in their folk culture.
Young people don’t need much encouragement to procreate in my experience. They do however need somewhere to do the deed. Hungary has experienced the most aggressive property price inflation of anywhere in the EU to the point that young people have little chance of buying their first home and, more importantly, they’re increasingly unable to rent one either, so they end up living with their parents or flatsharing, neither of which are conducive to either starting a romantic relationship or having children. Where do you propose putting a new born when all you can afford to rent is a room living with 3 other strangers? This is a problem across the developed world but the speed and magnitude of the price inflation in Hungary has been breathtaking, providing little opportunity for people to adapt.
If the government provided subsidised, affordable housing for newlyweds with a long-term tenancy agreement, watch the marriage and birth rate go through the roof, even without any of the other financial incentives which, for obvious reasons, are worth less in major cities than in rural areas.
That is a good point about housing. Lack of housing also creates a problem with allowing immigrants in. We are experiencing that now in Canada and the government has dramatically cut back on the number of immigrants that are allowed in. Increasing infertility is also an issue.
The direct financial support for young people to buy property has resulted in a gargantuan property bubble (clearly it’s not the only reason for this but is a highly influential factor and served to hugely increase demand with insuffiient supply). In my view this was always the intention behind these initiatives; they provide very temporary relief before the market catches up and riding on a wave of momentum keeps reaching giddy new heights, cancelling out the value of the stimulus to buyers while making in triple hard for anyone to buy or rent without access to a subsidy.
Construction of government or municipality owned apartments that are not for sale and rented at heavily subsidised rates to a target audience is the only solution that does not end up distorting the wider property market. Hungary need look no further than Austria for a long standing example of an exceedingly well managed property market that has managed to keep rents down while affording everyone a decent roof over their head. This, however, seems never to have been the goal, ratcheting up the value of Hungarian bricks and mortar was. The outcome is a terrible fertility rate all while claiming to want to help young people onto the property ladder in a manner that creates the illusion of support when, really, it just serves to saddle a generation with unaffordable debt.
If the market crashes as the overinflated values suggest it might, there will be a great many disillusioned buyers that find they are in negative equity, paying high mortgages on properties that are worth significantly less than they paid for them while selling them at anything other than a deep discount to supposed market value is largely impossible for years. People forget the carnage of 2009-2013.
Give all buyers 10 million forints. The price of property goes up by 10 million. All the money has gone to the existing home owners. The rich get richer etc.
Quite. A pointless endeavour that serves to burn taxpayer money and helps the early movers (before the market moves) but costs most beneficiaries the exact amount of the financial assistance. I’ve watched the same nonsense unfold over the last 40 years in the UK; it has taken much less time in Hungary.