Tribal escalation in Yemen paves the way for Iran’s plan and threatens global maritime trade
Yemen’s southern governorates have entered a race against time to begin implementing a sustainable energy strategy that aims to declare 2026 the “Year of Electricity” in the liberated southern regions, led by Aden, Hadramawt, Lahij and Shabwa. But efforts at economic recovery are being met with attempts to undermine the southern forces’ role in countering the plans of the Iran-backed Houthi militias and the terrorist organization al-Qaeda.
The first Yemeni Conference on Sustainable Energy, held with international participation, opened wide opportunities for implementing new energy projects funded both domestically and from abroad. The conference also discussed structural reforms and financing for solar and wind energy projects, ultimately serving the infrastructure of southern Yemeni areas, especially Hadramawt – one of the main arteries of global trade in the Middle East – which is currently under threat from military movements by some tribes.
For weeks, Yemenis in Hadramawt have feared tribal armament efforts under an entity calling itself the “Hadramawt Tribes Alliance,” whose primary objective is to seize control of oil fields, carry out looting and block roads in confrontation with the Hadrami Elite Forces. These forces operate under the umbrella of the Southern Transitional Council and have succeeded in establishing broad stability in recent years, thwarting Houthi militia attempts to implement Iran’s plan to control the country’s most important governorates and confronting the terrorist organization al-Qaeda as well.
Threat to maritime navigation
According to the Al-Sharq Center for Strategic Studies, Hadramawt makes up more than half the area of southern Yemen and is an oil-rich region. Official Yemeni figures indicate that Hadramawt’s oil sector accounted for 39% of Yemen’s total oil production in 2006.
The center believes that recent political and military developments in Hadramawt—especially the Hadramawt Tribes Alliance’s announcement of its intention to establish self-rule in the governorate—represent a fundamental shift on the Yemeni political scene. More than that, such demands open the door to further fragmentation projects.
For example, while the Southern Transitional Council called for a major mass rally on 24 April to commemorate the expulsion of al-Qaeda from Hadramawt, the Hadramawt Tribes Alliance had already organized a protest on the 12th of the same month to demand what it calls “self-rule,” a step aimed at dividing Yemen.
The armed tribal escalation in Hadramawt poses a direct threat to one of the world’s most vital maritime corridors for global trade and energy. Any disruption to the operation of oil ports or export routes in the Arabian Sea could drive up marine insurance costs and affect the flow of up to 3.8 million barrels of oil per day through the Bab al-Mandab Strait and the Suez Canal—a key route linking Asia and Europe. Any expansion of the conflict means heightened risks for international supply chains.
Since last October, Hadramawt governorate has begun procedures to develop and expand Al-Mukalla Port to receive as many commercial vessels as possible and widen shipping lines by constructing a new sea berth. This is intended to increase imports and exports, remove obstacles that have deterred commercial ships from calling at the port, establish new shipping routes, and provide the infrastructure needed to export minerals, according to the Al-Mashhad Al-Arabi news site.
Two weeks ago, the European Union delegation to Yemen announced, during a visit to Hadramawt, its strong political support for the Yemeni government in this pivotal governorate, especially in terms of backing local economic recovery. In Hadramawt, EU support contributes to driving local economic revival by supporting productive sectors such as fisheries, agriculture and creative industries.
Hadramawt is not just another number among Yemen’s governorates; it is a global maritime and economic lifeline by virtue of its location on Yemen’s southeastern coast. Oil shipments from Hadramawt’s terminals (such as Al-Dabba port) pass through the Gulf of Aden, Bab al-Mandab and the Suez Canal—a route that constitutes one of the most important trade corridors between Asia and Europe.
The return of al-Qaeda
After the Hadrami Elite Forces succeeded in 2016 in clearing the city of Al-Mukalla and fully securing the Hadramawt coast from al-Qaeda elements, the terrorist organization has exploited recent tribal tensions to adopt the Houthi narrative, calling for a halt to oil exports from the governorate and for an escalation of confrontation against the internationally backed government. This was confirmed by Yemeni media outlets, including the “Tehama 24” platform.
Observers quoted by the platform say the alignment between the rhetoric of al-Qaeda and the Houthis reflects a convergence of goals despite ideological differences, and raises fears of indirect coordination between the two sides to threaten security and stability, especially in oil-rich areas. This position mirrors the Houthi militias’ use of the oil sector as a pressure card against the Yemeni government.
The al-Qaeda statement in question coincided with security warnings about the possibility that irregular armed tribal groups loyal to the Hadrami tribal alliance in the Hadramawt plateau could be infiltrated by al-Qaeda elements, amid fears that this could be exploited to destabilize the relatively secure Hadramawt coast, where stability has been maintained thanks to the deployment of the Hadrami Elite Forces.
Security experts are increasingly warning that any penetration of these camps by the organization could pave the way for a return to chaos and a resurgence of al-Qaeda activity after years of decline, threatening hard-won security gains and posing a serious danger to one of the world’s most important maritime shipping lanes.