PM Orbán is making steady strides towards another significant victory, but can Péter Magyar turn the tide?
Hungarians are growing increasingly optimistic, with a sharp rise in those expecting meaningful salary increases this year. Meanwhile, the consumer confidence index has improved to levels not seen in years.
It appears that the announced government support measures and financial transfers are beginning to achieve their intended social impact. While a shift in trend was discussed at the end of summer, a recent survey by the 21 Research Centre shows it’s the Tisza camp — not Fidesz — that needs to rally, or else Orbán will clinch yet another major win in April.
What you’ll read about in this article:
Improving public mood and a more hopeful population
According to research published yesterday by 24.hu, Péter Magyar’s party still enjoys a lead equivalent to hundreds of thousands of voters across the population, but this advantage is slowly melting away. The turning point likely came in late summer, when major announcements such as tax exemption for mothers, the 14th monthly pension, and favourable housing loans were unveiled.
Public sentiment has continued to improve since then. A representative survey of Egyensúly Intézet this year reveals that a significant portion of Hungarian society still experiences severe financial hardship—29% of the population would currently struggle to cover an unexpected expense of 100,000 forints. Yet this represents a decrease from 32% last year. While only 6% of Hungarians believed their wages would rise last year, this year that number has more than doubled to 14%, with 66% expecting earnings to remain stable.
The consumer confidence index tracked by GKI—typically closely aligned with government approval—reached an 11-month high in September, though it dipped slightly in November.
New research: The gap closes between Orbán and Péter Magyar
Government-affiliated institutes consistently measure a Fidesz lead, contrasting with independent surveys that show the Tisza alliance as the clear frontrunner in a hypothetical “this coming Sunday” election. However, the election is at least five months away, and the trend currently does not favour Péter Magyar’s camp.
The 21 Research Centre’s study (from 21 to 28 November) found Tisza leading nationally by 4%, with Péter Magyar’s party at 31% and Fidesz at 27%. According to the research, only the Mi Hazánk party would gain parliamentary seats alongside these two. Tisza supporters show stronger loyalty, though this commitment has slightly weakened compared to earlier.
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Their mandate calculator predicts the following outcome if the election were held this Sunday:
- Tisza: 108 seats, comfortably enough to form a government
- Fidesz: 84 seats (including a preferential seat for the German minority)
- Mi Hazánk: 7 seats
However, there are 22 constituencies where the race is tighter than 3%, and a key factor is that at the time of surveying neither Tisza’s nor Fidesz’s local candidates were confirmed, which could sway results by a few percentage points.
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Tisza narrows the gap, but can they turn the tables?
The Medián survey from 1 December echoes the same trends, showing Tisza ahead by 5% nationally, though the gap is closing. More voters now anticipate a Fidesz victory than a Tisza one, especially among small-party supporters who have lost hope of a change in government—a significant shift despite the improving public mood.
Gábor Török, a leading Hungarian political analyst, observes that Fidesz is catching up, but Tisza maintains both their lead and base. This means a high-level strategic battle is unfolding. Viktor Orbán must reinvent himself in new roles. Meanwhile, Tisza has effectively regained the political agenda with the primary elections, clarifying which candidate will challenge Fidesz in each seat. It’s telling that most Fidesz candidates are yet to be announced.
All signs point to a busy stretch of strategising for both sides before the Christmas break. From January, the real campaign for those crucial few hundred thousand votes that could still be swayed will kick into high gear.
- Click for more of our articles concerning the 2026 general elections.
5 months is a long way to go – a lot can happen
That said, I update my odds from 7-5, 10 days ago in Magyar’s favour, to 7-5 in Orban’s favour.
Magyar has the right strategy in going to small towns, but, if it is just the same message, it is not likely to be successful.
Smalltown and rural folks resonate differently, as a whole, from city folks.
Orbán’s “unlimited electability” is a facade built on a tilted playing field: a media empire, gerrymandered districts, and a captured economy.
While functional EU democracies ensure rotation of power, his regime manufactures division to brand opposition as unpatriotic, trapping Hungary in a perpetual one-party state disguised as democracy.
This analysis presents a compelling case for political durability, focusing on institutional consolidation and a mobilized base rather than just polling. The key takeaway seems to be that after nearly two decades in power, Fidesz has engineered not just electoral victories but a political ecosystem—media, institutions, economic levers—that makes a traditional change of government exceptionally difficult. The question for 2026 may be less about a dramatic “tide turn” and more about whether a fractured opposition can present a credible enough alternative to challenge this entrenched system, even amid potential voter fatigue.
If the opposition’s primary path to victory is through unprecedented unity and turnout, what specific policy issue or coalition-building strategy do you see as having the most potential to actually bridge the divides between Hungary’s disparate opposition parties?
Orban evtizedek ota csalja el a valasztasokat a Black Cube, (mossad) es a haborusbunos netanyahu ( mileikowsky)-tol “ajandekba” kapott szamito gep program ( Pegasus) segitsevel! O alakitotta at netanyahunak a “pagereket” amivel az HUNDREDS of artatalan civilt olt, sebesitett meg Lebanon-ban! Whare is the money orban? Where is the 15 BILLION Euro you have stolen from the long suffering people ofHungary??