PM Orbán promised Hungarian citizenship to guest workers in Hungary: misinterpretation or a sharp turnaround?

In a recently published interview, the prime minister said that third-country guest workers who behave well in Hungary, work properly, and obey the law “may even apply for citizenship”. Is this a sharp shift from his anti-immigration stance?

In almost every European country, the population would shrink without immigration

Hungary’s population has been declining almost continuously since the 1980s. Between 2015 and 2025, the country lost more than 300,000 people, with the population falling from 9.8 million to 9.5 million. By contrast, in 1983 more than 10.7 million people lived in Hungary.

The Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH) estimates that by 2070 the population will fall to just 7.2 million, with a much larger share being elderly and economically inactive. This will require a shrinking active workforce to support them through old-age pensions.

• Hungary’s population drops below psychological level for the first time since 1952

This trend is, of course, not unique to Hungary; it is a pan-European issue and, indeed, a challenge facing the entire developed world. Once a certain level of economic development is reached, and aside from a few local communities with specific characteristics, couples generally have fewer children, while marriages and stable partnerships decline sharply.

Several European governments have responded by inviting migrants; Germany, for instance, has done so over the past decade. France has largely maintained a fertility rate above 2 by accepting substantial migrant flows from its former colonies for decades.

The Hungarian government has, until now, firmly rejected this approach, arguing that family policy measures and state support for child-bearing can achieve a demographic turnaround. Unfortunately, the figures do not support this claim.

Despite everything: birth rates plummet dramatically in Hungary

Following the introduction of the subsidised housing loan scheme for families (CSOK), both marriages and the number of children planned increased. In 2010, at the time of the change of government, the fertility rate stood at 1.25; by the early 2020s, it had risen to 1.61. While this was still insufficient to replace the population, it was a significant improvement.

Moreover, the trend continued upward until 2021. The subsequent downturn was partly due to the coronavirus pandemic, partly to the economic crisis that followed, and partly to economic stagnation in recent years. Experts also note that many of the children planned as a result of family policy measures (such as favourable housing loans and tax incentives) had already been born by the end of the 2010s.

In 2024, the fertility rate fell to 1.39, and in the first half of this year it dropped further to just 1.27 — almost the same level as at the time of the government change in 2010. Looking at the overall trend, even taking massive emigration into account, achieving the replacement rate of 2.1 now appears impossible.

Can guest workers now obtain Hungarian citizenship?

A reader of Válasz Online noticed that the Hungarian prime minister recently made a surprising statement in an interview with the German newspaper Bild regarding guest workers arriving in Hungary.

The government’s position on migration has so far been clear: it will not admit illegal migrants, nor will it accept migrants already residing elsewhere in the European Union — even if Hungary is fined or loses development funds amounting to hundreds of millions of euros.

Hungary has insisted that it does not wish to welcome or settle migrants. It will only accept workers from third countries if they come solely to work and return home once their fixed-term contracts expire. Students (primarily university students) and highly skilled third-country workers are exceptions.

The requirements for Hungarian citizenship include eight years of continuous residence, excellent Hungarian language skills, and passing a citizenship exam. Under the current guest-worker rules, these criteria would be impossible to meet.

However, it appears that Viktor Orbán may have hinted at something new — perhaps even something unknown to some of his own ministers. In the Bild interview, the prime minister emphasised that at most 35,000 guest workers could arrive this year and next. They would receive two-year permits, meaning they could not meet the eight-year residency requirement.

Nevertheless, Orbán added that if they committed no crimes and behaved properly, their permits could be extended by a further two years. “Then they might even apply for citizenship,” he said.

• Click for more articles concerning the population of Hungary.

Did his own government fail to notice Orbán’s reversal?

László Toroczkai, president of the Mi Hazánk Movement — a party positioning itself to the right of the government — immediately raised the issue in Parliament. He argued that the government now intends to populate the country with migrants and grant them citizenship, despite earlier promises to the contrary.

In response, state secretary János Fónagy reminded the party leader that guest workers may stay in Hungary for a maximum of two years, with a possible extension of up to one additional year. They cannot bring family members with them. Furthermore, they may only work in specific occupations designated by the Hungarian state as suffering from labour shortages, and they can only come from countries that agree to repatriate their citizens if they violate the rules or their contracts end.

If a contract expires, the worker must leave the country immediately. According to Fónagy, the number of third-country nationals in Hungary is steadily decreasing and, relative to total employment, is the lowest among the Visegrád Group countries (Slovakia, Czechia, Poland, and Hungary).

Here is the clash:

The question remains whether Orbán is genuinely preparing a major policy shift regarding guest workers, or whether he spoke carelessly in the Bild interview. It is also possible — as Fónagy suggested — that his words were deliberately misinterpreted and inaccurately reported. Notably, the government has not publicly protested against Bild’s coverage since the interview was published.