Can we start counting again? The global population may be much larger than we thought

According to a recent study, it is possible that we have significantly underestimated the size of the global population – particularly in rural areas. If this is indeed the case, the implications would go far beyond statistics, raising serious social and economic questions as well.

Counting the global population has always been one of humanity’s greatest challenges. Censuses, along with various global databases and statistical models, aim to estimate as accurately as possible how many people live on this planet. Based on these, the Earth’s population is currently estimated at around 8.2 billion.

However, a new study suggests that we may not have been counting carefully enough.

The global population and the hidden residents of rural areas

According to Josias Láng-Ritter, a researcher at Aalto University in Finland and the lead author of a study published in Nature Communications, the global databases commonly used to estimate the global population may significantly underrepresent rural populations.

During the research, scientists analysed data from 300 rural dam construction projects across 35 countries, covering the period between 1975 and 2010. These data are particularly valuable because large numbers of people had to be resettled during dam construction. In such cases, the affected populations were counted very precisely, as compensation payments, for example, were directly linked to the number of people involved.

Láng-Ritter explains that these datasets made it possible to compare locally collected, on-the-ground population figures with widely used global databases such as WorldPop, GWP, GRUMP, LandScan and GHS-POP.

The results were surprising: depending on the dataset examined, rural populations were underestimated by between 53 and 84 per cent. This suggests that the global population could be far higher than previously believed.

Why does this matter?

The study does not raise purely theoretical concerns. Census data play a crucial role in the distribution of resources, infrastructure development and social policy decisions. If population figures are consistently underestimated in certain regions – especially in rural areas – the communities living there may be placed at a significant disadvantage.

One reason for this issue may be that many countries lack sufficient resources for accurate data collection. In addition, remote and hard-to-reach rural areas are particularly difficult to survey, further increasing the risk of statistical distortion.

Scepticism behind the numbers

Not all experts, however, accept the study’s conclusions without reservation. Stuart Gietel-Basten, a researcher at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, argues that while improving the accuracy of rural population data would certainly be beneficial, it is extremely unlikely that the global population is larger by several million – let alone billions – compared to current estimates.

In his view, if such large-scale undercounting had truly occurred, it would fundamentally undermine the credibility of thousands of databases that have been used for decades, which in itself would constitute a discovery of historic significance.

New questions, old methods

When counting an entire planet’s population, it is natural for a few hundred or even a few thousand people to “disappear” within statistical datasets. However, missing millions or billions would radically change the way we think about the global population.

For now, the research raises more questions than it provides concrete answers. The scientific community is awaiting further evidence before reconsidering the census-related methodologies that have been developed over decades.

If you happened to miss it, in this article, you can read about how Hungary’s population has reached a historic low in recent years.