Latest polls – Strong Orbán numbers, weak party showing: Tisza stays ahead of Fidesz

Hungary’s opposition Tisza Party continues to hold a steady lead over the governing Fidesz in the latest polling data, with neither side able to shift the political landscape significantly, according to a representative survey conducted by Publicus Institute for Népszava.

The January polling shows no meaningful change in party popularity compared to December’s figures. Among the general population, the Tisza Party remains at 33 per cent, whilst Fidesz stands at 28 per cent – precisely matching the previous month’s results.

However, a competing poll released the same day by the government-aligned Nézőpont Institute presents a starkly different picture, highlighting the deep divide between independent and pro-government polling organisations in Hungary.

Contrasting pictures from competing pollsters

The Publicus Institute survey included responses from 1,001 people and is representative of Hungary’s adult population by age, gender, education level, settlement type, and region, with a sampling error of 3.1 per cent.

Among certain voters in the Publicus poll, Fidesz gained one percentage point (reaching 33 per cent) whilst Tisza dropped one point (to 39 per cent), though these shifts remain well within the margin of error. For committed party supporters, the standings also mirror December’s results: Tisza holds 48 per cent compared to Fidesz’s 40 per cent – an eight-point lead that represents the most significant finding.

Notably, 17 per cent of certain voters have yet to commit to any party, suggesting a substantial pool of undecided electors.

By contrast, the government-aligned Nézőpont Institute’s January survey paints an entirely different picture. Their polling suggests 46 per cent of voting-age Hungarians consider Prime Minister Viktor Orbán the most suitable candidate for the premiership, compared to just 35 per cent for Péter Magyar – an 11-percentage-point gap.

Where Orbán remains strongest

The Nézőpont data reveals specific demographic strengths for the prime minister that help explain the divergence between polling organisations.

Rural communities: According to Nézőpont, 58 per cent of the 2.3 million Hungarians living in villages consider Viktor Orbán the most suitable prime minister. The institute suggested this indicates that Péter Magyar’s country-touring campaign targeting small settlements “has not been particularly successful.”

Pensioners: Among the 2.5 million Hungarians aged 60 and over, 57 per cent favour Orbán for the premiership, according to the government-aligned pollster.

These findings stand in marked contrast to independent polling, which has found no demographic group where Orbán enjoys particularly strong support compared to Péter Magyar.

Smaller parties struggle at the threshold

The Democratic Coalition (DK) dropped one percentage point across categories, now registering 3 per cent support among the general population and 4 per cent in the other two voter categories. This places the party perilously close to – and potentially below – the 5 per cent parliamentary threshold required to enter the National Assembly.

The Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party (MKKP) remains stuck at 2-3 per cent support, whilst the far-right Mi Hazánk (Our Homeland) maintained its December figures: 4 per cent among the general population and 5 per cent among both certain voters and committed party supporters.

Based on these figures,

if elections were held this Sunday, only Tisza, Fidesz, and Mi Hazánk would secure seats in parliament, according to Publicus’s data.

Fidesz shows greater rejection but larger reserves

Analysis of secondary party preferences reveals a complex picture. Whilst Fidesz faces greater rejection than Tisza, the governing party also commands nearly double the reserve support of its challenger.

András Pulai, director of Publicus Institute, noted that 41 per cent of respondents would definitely not vote for the governing party, compared to 37 per cent who reject Tisza outright. The DK faces rejection from 44 per cent, MKKP from 46 per cent, and Mi Hazánk from 50 per cent of voters.

However, when examining potential mobilisable support, Fidesz shows considerable strength. Five per cent of all respondents named Tisza as their secondary party choice, with another 5 per cent considering voting for them – a total potential reserve of 10 per cent.

By contrast, Fidesz emerges as a secondary option for 6 per cent of the population, with an additional 12 per cent considering voting for the party – giving it 18 per cent in reserve support, nearly double that of Tisza.

The Democratic Coalition demonstrates the most striking reserve potential: 14 per cent named it as their “second most important party,” whilst 13 per cent consider voting for it possible. Only the Dog Party performed better on the latter measure, with 16 per cent. Taking all factors into account, Pulai concluded that the DK commands the largest reserves of any party – though whether this can translate into crossing the parliamentary threshold remains uncertain.

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High turnout expected, widespread dissatisfaction

The survey indicates exceptionally high voter engagement, with 81 per cent of respondents pledging to vote. Whilst other studies also project high turnout, political analysts and pollsters routinely caution that actual voting numbers typically fall short of such declarations.

Perhaps most significantly for the governing party, nearly two-thirds of Hungarians (63 per cent) express dissatisfaction with how things are going in the country, according to Publicus. Particularly noteworthy is that 71 per cent of pensioners – a demographic where Fidesz theoretically holds an advantage over Tisza – also belong to the dissatisfied camp.

The polling divide

The stark differences between government-aligned and independent polling organisations have become a defining feature of Hungarian politics. Whilst Publicus, Medián, and Republikon consistently show Tisza leading, Nézőpont and other pro-government institutes paint a picture of comfortable Fidesz dominance.

Independent pollsters have noted that in their research, “there is no social stratum where Viktor Orbán’s popularity stands out” demographically. Interestingly, one independent survey found Orbán “least popular among those over 60” – directly contradicting the Nézőpont findings.

Another polls, few days ago: PM Orbán sweats as polls tighten – but Péter Magyar can’t relax either

The frozen nature of the Publicus polling figures suggests that Hungary’s political landscape has settled into a new normal, with Tisza establishing itself as the primary opposition force whilst Fidesz struggles to regain lost ground. Whether either side can break this stalemate – and which polling picture more accurately reflects reality – will only become clear when Hungarians go to the polls on 12 April 2026. Read here all our articles about Hungary Parliamentary elections 2026