Diaspora voters overwhelmingly back Tisza: massive exit poll conducted

A large-scale independent exit poll conducted among Hungarians voting abroad suggests an overwhelming victory for the Tisza Party among diaspora voters, raising the possibility of last-minute changes in several closely contested constituencies.

Independent civic initiative delivers rare insight into overseas voting

The survey was carried out by the Magyar Vándor association, a Munich-based civic group of Hungarians living abroad. More than 60 volunteers collected responses from 3,905 voters across 10 countries on election day, targeting polling stations with a single exit point to ensure consistency.

The initiative, described as politically independent, aimed to make the participation and perspectives of Hungarians abroad more visible. While the results are not official, they provide a detailed snapshot of voting patterns among those casting ballots at foreign missions.

Tisza dominates among voters abroad

According to the exit poll:

• Party list votes:
  • Tisza: 80%
  • Fidesz: 7%
  • Mi Hazánk: 2%
  • Two-Tailed Dog Party: 1%
  • DK: 0%
• Individual candidates:
  • Tisza: 88%
  • Fidesz: 7%
  • Mi Hazánk: 2%
  • Others: negligible support

These figures show a striking level of support for Tisza among Hungarians voting abroad, far exceeding domestic averages.

Limited impact on national list results, but key in tight races

Despite the dramatic margins, the overall impact on national party-list results is expected to be minimal. Around 85,000 votes were cast abroad, compared to nearly 6 million domestic list votes already counted.

However, the situation is very different in individual constituencies, where narrow margins mean that diaspora and transferred votes (from voters registered away from their home districts) could prove decisive.

Four constituencies flipped

The following constituencies were projected to be able to flip, and they did so:

• Paks: Fidesz candidate János Süli led by just 138 votes, but incoming diaspora votes favoured Tisza challenger Tamás Cseh.
• Nyírbátor: A 174-vote Fidesz lead was overturned.
• Dombóvár: One of the most unpredictable races, with a 422-vote gap before counting the remaining ballots.
• Zala County 2: Underwent a full recount due to a margin under 100 votes, with the Tisza candidate emerging as the winner.

Final results still uncertain as counting continues

Votes cast abroad and by transferred voters are expected to be counted by Saturday evening, although recounts in tightly contested districts could delay final results further.

Currently, the parliamentary seat distribution stands at:

• Tisza: 140 seats
• Fidesz: 53 seats
• Mi Hazánk: 6 seats

Analysts suggest that even if Tisza gains additional constituencies, adjustments in compensation votes could offset some of those gains, potentially resulting in only a marginal net change in total seats.

Why diaspora voting matters

The Magyar Vándor initiative shows not only voting preferences but also the broader importance of diaspora participation in Hungary’s democratic process. By collecting anonymous, aggregated data, the project aims to provide a clearer picture of how Hungarians abroad engage with national elections.

UPDATE: 141 seats for Tisza

At 1 PM on Saturday, Tisza is already holding 141 seats at 99.66% of the votes counted.

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