Hungary’s population could shrink drastically by 2100, EU data shows

Hungary’s population is projected to fall dramatically over the coming decades, with new data from Eurostat forecasting a 22.5% decline by 2100.

This would see the country’s population drop below 7.5 million by the end of the century, which would mark a significant demographic change with far-reaching economic and social implications.

EU population set to shrink by 53 million

The trend is part of a larger demographic transformation across Europe. According to Eurostat’s latest projections, reported by Euronews, the total population of the European Union is expected to fall by 11.7%, from around 452 million today to 399 million by 2100.

That represents a loss of roughly 53 million people, even when factoring in migration.

At the same time, Europe is ageing rapidly. By the end of the century, nearly one in three Europeans is expected to be over the age of 65, placing increasing pressure on healthcare systems, pensions, and labour markets.

Sharp contrasts across Europe

Trends vary significantly between countries. Out of 30 European nations analysed, 18 are expected to see population declines, while 12 could experience growth.

The steepest drops are projected in countries such as Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Greece, where populations could fall by more than 30%.

Hungary’s projected decline places it among the more severely affected countries, alongside several Central and Eastern European states.

Migration key to demographic differences

Experts say migration is the main factor explaining why some countries are growing while others are shrinking.

Countries with sustained immigration, such as Luxembourg, Iceland and Malta, are expected to see increases of more than 25%, despite low birth rates.

In contrast, countries with low fertility and weaker migration inflows, or net emigration, are more likely to face long-term populace decline.

Major shifts among Europe’s largest countries

Among the EU’s largest economies, trends are mixed. Spain is expected to see a slight growth of around 1.3% by 2100, making it the only one of the bloc’s “big four” to grow.

Meanwhile, France is projected to experience a modest decline, while Germany could see its population fall by around 10.6%.

The most dramatic change is expected in Italy, where the population may shrink by as much as 24%, losing around 15 million people. As a result, Spain is forecast to overtake Italy to become the EU’s third most populous country.

An ageing continent

Beyond size, the structure of Europe’s population is also set to change profoundly.

The proportion of people aged 85 and over is expected to more than triple by 2100, while the working-age population will shrink significantly. This demographic imbalance could pose serious challenges for economic growth and sustainability across the EU.

What it means for Hungary

For Hungary, the projected decline raises questions about long-term economic competitiveness, workforce availability, and the sustainability of public services.

While migration, family policy, and labour market reforms could influence future trends, the overall trajectory points towards a smaller, older population by the end of the century.

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