Air fares could become significantly more expensive if oil and jet fuel prices remain elevated, with both Ryanair and Wizz Air warning that sustained cost pressure could eventually be passed on to passengers. The warnings come as airlines around the world grapple with higher fuel bills, capacity cuts and increasingly difficult decisions over ticket prices.

The pressure is already visible well beyond Europe. Southeast Asian budget airlines including AirAsia, Scoot and Cebu Pacific have struggled to recover soaring fuel costs through higher fares, with several reporting losses. AirAsia has even considered cutting seat capacity by as much as 25 percent as part of efforts to contain costs.

China’s three largest state-owned airlines – Air China, China Eastern and China Southern – meanwhile reported combined net losses of USD 1.22 billion for the first half of 2026, after fuel expenses jumped by roughly 35–38 percent.

Passengers in the United States are also already paying considerably more. US airline fares were 25.5 percent higher in July than a year earlier, while United Airlines chief executive Scott Kirby said he expects prices to continue rising gradually in the first half of 2027.

The situation highlights one of aviation’s biggest vulnerabilities: fuel is among an airline’s largest operating expenses, and sharp increases cannot be absorbed indefinitely. Many carriers use fuel hedging – contracts that lock in prices in advance – to soften short-term shocks, but those protections eventually expire.

Ryanair warns European air fares could rise materially

Ryanair has issued one of the clearest warnings yet about what prolonged high oil prices could mean for European passengers.

According to The Guardian, Europe’s largest low-cost airline has reduced its passenger target for the financial year ending 31 March 2027 from 216 million to 214 million, partly to reduce its exposure to expensive unhedged fuel during the typically loss-making winter season.

The carrier expects winter passenger numbers between November and March to remain broadly unchanged from a year earlier.

Ryanair said that if high oil prices continue into summer 2027, short-haul air fares in Europe could increase “materially”. The airline also warned that some competitors with less extensive fuel hedging could struggle to maintain their current capacity – and in extreme cases might not survive the winter.

Jet fuel was trading at around USD 140 a barrel when Ryanair issued its warning. The airline itself is relatively well protected, having hedged around 80 percent of its fuel requirements through March 2027 at approximately USD 67 a barrel.

Cutting winter capacity is expected to reduce Ryanair’s seasonal losses by between EUR 70 million and EUR 100 million.

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Wizz Air: capacity cuts may come before higher ticket prices

Hungary-linked low-cost carrier Wizz Air has now also acknowledged that persistently high fuel prices could ultimately result in more expensive tickets.

In a statement provided to 24.hu, Wizz Air said sustained high oil and jet fuel prices would inevitably put pressure on the European aviation sector, particularly as airlines’ existing fuel hedges gradually expire.

However, the company stressed that it was still too early to quantify the possible impact on air fares in 2027.

Wizz Air expects airlines to respond first by reducing capacity. Pricing measures could follow later, depending on how supply and demand develop.

The airline said a sustained Brent crude price of USD 90–100 a barrel or above would create additional pressure on the industry. Over time, that could push market fares higher if airlines cut capacity or attempt to pass part of their additional costs on to passengers.

For Wizz Air itself, the immediate impact is partly cushioned by its hedging portfolio and relatively fuel-efficient fleet. Even so, the company acknowledged that persistently high prices would eventually affect the unhedged portion of its fuel costs and therefore profitability.

The airline did not rule out ticket increases, saying that prolonged higher costs would ultimately also be reflected in fares.

Why it matters

For passengers, the most important point is that higher oil prices do not automatically translate into more expensive tickets overnight. Fuel hedging can delay the impact, while fierce competition may prevent airlines from immediately passing costs on to customers.

But the Ryanair and Wizz Air statements point to another mechanism that could ultimately prove just as important: capacity.

If airlines respond to high fuel costs by operating fewer flights, withdrawing aircraft or abandoning less profitable routes, the number of available seats falls. If passenger demand remains strong at the same time, fares can rise even without airlines directly adding a fuel surcharge.

That means travellers in Hungary and across Europe could eventually face a combination of fewer flight options and higher air fares if the current fuel-price environment persists into 2027.

For now, both Ryanair and Wizz Air retain significant protection through hedging. The real test will come as those contracts expire – and airlines are forced to buy a larger share of their fuel at prevailing market prices.

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