A weak cold front on Monday will offer little in the way of relief, with searing heat set to return in the second half of the week. Barely has the previous heat dome passed than, according to HungaroMet, several days of peak temperatures between 33C and 38C are again on the cards. Meanwhile, a prolonged lack of rainfall could push the Danube in Budapest to historic lows, disrupting river traffic and deepening drought conditions across Hungary and much of Europe.
New heat dome to follow ‘dry cold front’
HungaroMet forecasts that a weak cold front will cross the country on Monday, bringing cloudier skies in the first half of the day, along with scattered light rain, showers or thunderstorms — mainly east of the Danube, later shifting to the north-east. North-westerly winds may strengthen widely, with gusts turning gale-force in the vicinity of storms. Daytime highs are expected to reach between 29C and 33C, MTI wrote.
Any respite, however, will be short-lived. By Tuesday, sunny spells with fair-weather cloud are expected, with only isolated showers possible in the east. Afternoon temperatures will range between 25C and 32C.
From Wednesday onwards, clear and dry conditions will increasingly dominate. Highs of 28C to 34C are forecast for Wednesday, rising to 30C to 36C by Thursday. From Friday, a new heat dome is set to develop: temperatures could climb to between 33C and 38C on Friday and Saturday, with local readings of up to 39C possible by Sunday. Nights will bring diminishing relief, with minimum temperatures rising to between 17C and 24C by the weekend.
Danube in Budapest may fall to historic low
The prolonged dry spell is already being reflected in river levels. According to the National Hydrological Forecasting Service, the Danube at Budapest could fall to just 35 centimetres on Tuesday. Given a margin of error of plus or minus 7 centimetres, there is a realistic chance that the current record low could be broken.
The lowest level ever recorded in Budapest was 33 centimetres, measured on 25 October 2018 — though that record had already surpassed a benchmark that had stood since 1947.
Conditions are unlikely to improve in the near term. Little to no significant rainfall is expected across the Danube’s catchment area over the next six days, leaving scant hope for any meaningful rise in water levels. The low water has already caused serious disruption to shipping: both cargo and passenger vessels have been unable to proceed along several stretches of the river, while restrictions have been introduced in Budapest. Near Komárom, river cruise ships have recently been forced to queue, with passengers transferred to the capital by bus.
Persistently low water levels could, in the longer term, threaten drinking water supplies drawn from the Danube, although no such issues arose during the late-June heatwave, and Budapest Waterworks has issued reassuring statements on the matter.
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Drought set to intensify
While Monday’s cold front may briefly temper the heat, it will do little to alleviate the lack of rainfall. High-pressure conditions are expected to reassert themselves thereafter, suppressing cloud formation and ensuring continued dry, sunny weather through the rest of the week, Portfólió wrote.
Any showers that do develop on Monday will fall well short of replenishing parched soils. HungaroMet’s weekly precipitation anomaly map suggests that not only the Carpathian Basin but much of Europe is likely to receive below-average rainfall for this time of year. A particularly extensive dry zone is emerging across Central and Eastern Europe, pointing to a process on a continental scale.
All signs indicate that drought conditions will deepen in the coming days. The sustained rainfall deficit is placing increasing strain on vegetation, agriculture and water resources, with forecasts offering little indication of prolonged or substantial rainfall in the near future.
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