Bulgaria is set to join the eurozone in 2026, reigniting debate in Hungary over when the country might adopt the single currency.
Although the euro was initially expected around 2015, Hungary no longer has an official target date, and there appears to be no strong political will from the government. Earlier this year, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán stated that the current structure of the euro tends to benefit stronger economies and may not be advantageous for developing nations. So how is Bulgaria managing to adopt the EU’s common currency?
What are the benefits of joining the eurozone, and why might it not be worthwhile?
Experts continue to highlight several positives. Introducing the euro would eliminate fluctuations in the forint’s exchange rate, providing greater stability for foreign trade, benefiting both exporters and importers. Travellers and online shoppers would also benefit through the removal of currency conversion fees and by being shielded from a weakening forint.
According to Pénzcentrum, borrowers might also benefit from a sustained low-interest rate environment, although savers could see lower returns. For investors, Hungary could become more attractive, as the absence of currency risk would simplify financial planning.
However, the loss of monetary independence is seen as a major drawback. Hungary would no longer be able to control its own interest and exchange rate policies, potentially complicating crisis management. Experts warn that Hungary’s economic cycle does not always align with that of the eurozone, meaning decisions by the European Central Bank may not be ideal for the country.
What can be learnt from Bulgaria?
Bulgaria’s accession has been preceded by years of preparation. The country has operated a fixed exchange rate system for decades, and the government introduced strict price monitoring mechanisms to prevent price hikes due to rounding during currency conversion. While some short-term inflationary pressure is expected, long-term impacts appear to be moderate.
When might Hungary take the leap?
According to Zoltán Török, chief analyst at Raiffeisen Bank, the earliest realistic timeline would be between 2030 and 2032, although he personally advocates for earlier adoption. András Bukovszki of CIB Bank believes that political will is key, alongside macroeconomic criteria, it is ultimately political choice that will determine when accession becomes a real agenda item.
Currently, Hungary does not fully meet any of the Maastricht criteria: budget deficit, public debt, inflation, and interest rates all miss the benchmarks. Moreover, economic competitiveness, productivity, and innovation performance would need improvement to ensure that eurozone membership is genuinely safe.
Has its advantages – but is no silver bullet
Most experts agree that a small, open economy like Hungary stands to benefit more from adopting the euro than it risks losing. However, the euro is no magic fix for structural issues: weak innovation, labour market challenges, and inefficient public spending will still need national solutions. While the euro could bring greater economic stability and deeper EU integration, it also involves a partial surrender of monetary sovereignty. Over the coming years, Hungary must decide whether to follow Bulgaria and other regional peers into the eurozone or retain its national currency.
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Orban just implied that Hungary does not have one of the “stronger economies” and thus cannot adopt the Euro. Croatia adoped the euro in 2023 and economic growth there has been strong with wages rising considerably outstripping inflation. So, Hungary simply isn’t qualified after 15 years of Fidesz rule which has put Hungary’s economy into decline. Now you go to the public in April and you say “We are not one of the stronger economies and we don’t meet the conditions for Euro adoption but somehow still our government is so fabulous that you need to reelect us again.” To win Orban is counting on Hungarians being the biggest fools in Europe.
OMG, WHY should we rush into this, worry about it, or do it eventually at all!?!?!?
Oh, it eliminates currency fees and fluctuations. Is there any evidence that is a serious problem now? It doesn’t seem to be. Besides, what, exactly, is Europe producing so much that we need to be concerned in this regard??
It would make more sense to adopt the yuan instead of the euro!
It will just make everything more expensive and the E.U. will implode within a decade or two anyway.
Stay out!