The demographic crisis in Europe and Hungary is deepening quietly but unstoppably, while its effects are reshaping society in increasingly visible ways. Although the process has been known for decades, genuine political and social responses are still largely absent in many places.
The demographic crisis as a “grey rhino”
The demographic crisis is a textbook example of a foreseeable problem that nonetheless fails to trigger an adequate response. It has been known for decades that fertility rates are declining, yet a comprehensive societal response is still missing, as reported by Index from a discussion organised by the Demographic Section of the Hungarian Economic Association (MKT).
The roundtable discussion featured Mihály Tatár alongside Georgina Kiss-Kozma, Deputy Director of the MCC Youth Research Institute, János I. Tóth, philosopher and associate professor at the University of Szeged and member of the Demographic Section’s board, and Zsuzsa Sisak Fekete, Secretary of the Demographic Section.
Whereas overpopulation was once the prevailing concern, it is now abundantly clear that in many regions of the world the opposite process is under way: populations are ageing and shrinking.
The participants noted that this is not a problem confined to Europe alone. In Japan, the number of births has halved within a matter of decades, and similar trends are observable in Germany, Italy and France. The demographic crisis is therefore a global phenomenon rooted in profound social changes.
Hungary: an accelerating population decline
The situation in Hungary is particularly alarming. The total fertility rate stood at around 1.6 in 2021, but has since fallen to 1.3 by 2026, with the first quarter of this year recording just 1.29. This falls significantly short of the 2.1 rate required to maintain a stable population.
The severity of the demographic crisis is compounded by the fact that not only are fewer children being born, but the number of women of childbearing age is also declining. This creates a kind of double pressure: reproduction is occurring on a smaller base and at a lower fertility rate. According to Eurostat projections, Hungary’s population could fall substantially by the end of the century, even accounting for immigration.
The “tempo effect” and misleading improvements
The temporary improvement observed in earlier years was partly attributable to the so-called “tempo effect.” This refers to the phenomenon whereby family policy measures caused childbearing to be brought forward in time, without necessarily increasing the overall number of children people chose to have.
As a result, statistics may have shown short-term improvement, only to decline again over the longer term. Experts suggest that the current level of around 1.3 is no longer a transient fluctuation, but rather a stabilising pattern of low fertility.
More than an economic question
The demographic crisis is not merely an economic or policy problem. While family support measures are important, their impact is limited. Deeper cultural and social changes underlie the trend.
Young people are choosing to have children later, and often fewer than they themselves consider ideal. Individualisation, shifting relationship patterns and an uncertain outlook for the future all play a part. Having children is thus increasingly becoming a conscious — yet frequently postponed — decision. About what healthcare reforms the new Tisza government wants to implement, we reported on here.
Long-term consequences
The effects of the demographic crisis extend far beyond population figures. The sustainability of pension systems, the functioning of healthcare and economic growth may all be placed at risk. In addition, the ageing of society carries political consequences, as older age groups carry ever greater weight in decision-making.
According to experts, the greatest challenge is that the demographic crisis unfolds slowly, making it difficult for it to become a pressing political issue. Yet the longer solutions are delayed, the harder the consequences will be to manage.
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