Huxit threat: Hungarian economist warns of real possibility under PM Orbán

Huxit speculation has intensified as the Orbán administration continues to clash with the European Commission.Currently, it is running a billboard campaign criticising Ursula von der Leyen and Manfred Weber for backing the fast-tracking of Ukraine’s EU accession. At the same time, Hungary is still unable to access billions of euros in RRF and development funds due to ongoing rule-of-law concerns, fuelling further debate over whether Prime Minister Viktor Orbán might eventually lead the country out of the European Union.

Hungarian economist Zoltán Pogátsa on a possible Huxit

In an interview a week ago, Orbán stated that it was not currently worthwhile for Hungary to leave the EU, but if circumstances changed, he would take action. The newspaper Népszava asked well-known Hungarian economist Zoltán Pogátsa—who is known on social media under the nickname Pogi—for his opinion on a possible Huxit.

Mr Pogátsa outlined economic and political reasons why he believes Orbán will not lead Hungary out of the EU. Firstly, he said that, in his view, there would be no referendum on the issue. The Orbán government would decide unilaterally and would only conduct a so-called “national consultation” to gauge the views of its supporters.

However, such a move is highly unlikely. Orbán commands international attention largely because he is the prime minister of an EU member state. If Hungary were to exit the EU, his global relevance would diminish to the level of, for instance, the Prime Minister of North Macedonia.

Could Hungary become an economic satellite of Trump’s USA?

Addressing economic concerns, Mr Pogátsa explained that Hungary’s entire economic model is based on its EU membership. This is why Chinese, South Korean, and even German companies establish plants in Hungary—to avoid extra EU tariffs, customs duties, and import restrictions. If Hungary were to leave the EU, these companies would likely withdraw.

Regarding the Hungarian prime minister’s good relationship with former US President Donald Trump, Mr Pogátsa remarked that the United States could not provide meaningful support for Hungary’s economy, as Hungary has little to offer in return. Without the export products manufactured by Hungarian workers in German, Chinese, and Korean-owned factories, the country would have no competitive economic base. Consequently, becoming a Puerto Rico-like satellite of the US economy is not a realistic prospect.

Read also:

• “Dear Donald, don’t raise your hopes too high”, said PM Orbán, then criticised his own son-in-law’s luxury life
• Bloomberg: Hungary is in the EU only for money, Huxit possible? – read more HERE