Concerned by the looming energy crisis, everybody has one question: how hard will this coming winter be? There are conflicting predictions about the weather during December. However, a new simulation predicts that the start of the winter will be harsher than usual. We got used to the warmer winters in the past years so this year might bring some unpleasant surprises.
The Institute of Climate Politics predicts that the start of the winter will be colder than average — reports Infostart.hu. Fortunately, the second half of the winter should be milder than usual though. These are not rules carved in stone, but experts verify the plausibility of this scenario. When it comes to weather forecasts, multiple factors should be considered — said Erik Kovács, a researcher at the institute. General trends of the past decades give a firm indication of what can be expected. Needless to say, climate processes are also taken into consideration during the formulation of the analyses. However, there are numerous other physical, chemical and weather variables, that can change everything. Different models are then used to make forecasts and create various different scenarios. Later, the probability of each scenario is examined and the one with the most likelihood is chosen.
This year’s predictions show that from November until the end of December, temperatures will be lower than usual in Europe. Snowfall is even possible, which has been quite a rare occurrence in many countries over the years. There is a 30 to 35 percent chance that air currents will come from the direction of Siberia. This would mean a cold, but dry winter. Another likely scenario is that a current from the direction of the Atlantic Ocean will bring warmer air. This is expected to arrive in the months of January and February, so these months will be milder. This is also the current that allows Northern Europe to be much warmer, than the other side of the Atlantic Ocean.
On the one hand, according to the models, in December temperatures will be 0.5 to 1.5 degrees colder than average. During the day we can expect to have temperatures below zero more than once. On the other hand, temperatures in January and February are expected to be 1.5 to 2 degrees higher than average. This means that frost will only happen at night, most likely. But of course, these are all just possibilities. There is no way to predict the future with a hundred percent certainty.
The cold is expected to arrive by the end of this week. Temperatures will be around 11 and 16 degrees, according to Index.hu. In mid-November, temperatures might drop below 10 degrees and the average will be around 9 degrees. At night, the first minuses are expected and 1 degree will be the maximum.
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Source: Infostart.hu, Index.hu
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