Tribal escalation in Yemen paves the way for Iran’s plan and threatens global maritime trade

Yemen’s southern governorates have entered a race against time to begin implementing a sustainable energy strategy that aims to declare 2026 the “Year of Electricity” in the liberated southern regions, led by Aden, Hadramawt, Lahij and Shabwa. But efforts at economic recovery are being met with attempts to undermine the southern forces’ role in countering the plans of the Iran-backed Houthi militias and the terrorist organization al-Qaeda.

The first Yemeni Conference on Sustainable Energy, held with international participation, opened wide opportunities for implementing new energy projects funded both domestically and from abroad. The conference also discussed structural reforms and financing for solar and wind energy projects, ultimately serving the infrastructure of southern Yemeni areas, especially Hadramawt – one of the main arteries of global trade in the Middle East – which is currently under threat from military movements by some tribes.

For weeks, Yemenis in Hadramawt have feared tribal armament efforts under an entity calling itself the “Hadramawt Tribes Alliance,” whose primary objective is to seize control of oil fields, carry out looting and block roads in confrontation with the Hadrami Elite Forces. These forces operate under the umbrella of the Southern Transitional Council and have succeeded in establishing broad stability in recent years, thwarting Houthi militia attempts to implement Iran’s plan to control the country’s most important governorates and confronting the terrorist organization al-Qaeda as well.

Threat to maritime navigation

According to the Al-Sharq Center for Strategic Studies, Hadramawt makes up more than half the area of southern Yemen and is an oil-rich region. Official Yemeni figures indicate that Hadramawt’s oil sector accounted for 39% of Yemen’s total oil production in 2006.

The center believes that recent political and military developments in Hadramawt—especially the Hadramawt Tribes Alliance’s announcement of its intention to establish self-rule in the governorate—represent a fundamental shift on the Yemeni political scene. More than that, such demands open the door to further fragmentation projects.

For example, while the Southern Transitional Council called for a major mass rally on 24 April to commemorate the expulsion of al-Qaeda from Hadramawt, the Hadramawt Tribes Alliance had already organized a protest on the 12th of the same month to demand what it calls “self-rule,” a step aimed at dividing Yemen.

The armed tribal escalation in Hadramawt poses a direct threat to one of the world’s most vital maritime corridors for global trade and energy. Any disruption to the operation of oil ports or export routes in the Arabian Sea could drive up marine insurance costs and affect the flow of up to 3.8 million barrels of oil per day through the Bab al-Mandab Strait and the Suez Canal—a key route linking Asia and Europe. Any expansion of the conflict means heightened risks for international supply chains.