Orbán has time until midnight: EUR billions at stake, HUF may collapse
Based on the latest calculations of the GKI economic research institute, if Hungary does not receive the EU recovery funds, the euro value might stabilise at around HUF 430. Prime minister Viktor Orbán and his government have time to send their response letter on the issue to the European Committee until this midnight. That document might play a key part in receiving the EU money or Brussel’s rejection concerning the Hungarian plea for the recovery fund.
Orbán has time until midnight
According to atv.hu, without receiving the EU’s recovery funds, the Hungarian GDP growth might fall 2-3 percent. Furthermore, 1 euro will cost 430 forints, and that exchange rate will remain. That is what the GKI economic research institute projects now, based on their latest financial calculations.
The Hungarian government’s deadline to notify the European Commission of what they would like to do to stop corruption is this midnight. The letter will play a key part in whether Budapest will receive the EU funds estimated to be HUF 15 thousand billion (USD 36.7 billion). In 2021, Hungary’s GDP was USD 182 billion, so the EU’s recovery fund is undisputedly a considerable amount of money.
The president already included a message to Brussels last Saturday in her August 20 speech. Katalin Novák said “the precondition for our cooperation [with the EU – editor] is that they do not blackmail us either with the money we are entitled to or ideologies that have been rejected by Hungarians,” the president said. Hungary wants to make Europe stronger and the continent’s “voice louder”, Novák said. “This is how we’ll have a chance to protect Europeans and preserve the parts of our history and culture that made Europe great,” she added.
The European Council will decide
However, the European Commission expects a written answer from the Hungarian government. Orbán’s fifth cabinet has time until Monday midnight to send that letter. What Brussels wants to know is how the government would like to use the recovery funds.
After receiving the government’s letter, the EC will have one month to decide whether they accept it. If they do, the fund will start to flow into Hungary. However, if not, Hungary will not receive all the money. According to a foreign affairs expert, former MEP and ambassador, István Szent-Iványi, the latter is more likely to happen.
Opinions differ on the rate that withdrawal will reach. Commissioners Vera Jourová and Reynders would like a more severe punishment. However, some commissioners would be more lenient on the issue. The European Council will make the final decision with a qualified majority. That means the Hungarian prime minister cannot veto.
Billions of euros at stake
There is a huge amount of money at stake. Hungary could receive 5.9 billion euros from the recovery fund and 22 billion euros from the long-term EU budget for 2021-2027.
The CEO of the GKI believes that without that money, the Hungarian GDP will fall by 2-3 percent, and the euro exchange rate will be 430 HUF/EUR. That is because the government would have to reduce its spending. Furthermore, inflation would be higher, decreasing investment and consumption.
The government made two gestures towards the EU. The parliament may accept the modifications of the law on legislation and the criminal procedure code in September. István Ujhelyi, the MEP of the Socialists, said that the European Union expressed specific demands concerning the rule of law in Hungary, the prosecution service and the courts.
ATV asked the Ministry of Justice whether they sent their response to the EC or not but has not yet received an answer.
GKI is a private economic research institute in Hungary, specialising in economic analyses and forecasts. It specialises in analyses and forecasts of economic policy, impact analysis on the economic policy of the EU, financial and market analyses, forecasts for strategic decisions, market research with surveys and econometrics, industrial, sectoral and regional reports, zsi.at writes.
UPDATE
Read alsoOrbán cabinet hopes EC could sign the agreement on funding from the bloc’s recovery fund and seven-year budget
Source: zsi.at, atv.hu,
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13 Comments
DNH – Article Dated – 21/08/2022 titled ;
“President : the EU should not blackmail Hungary with money,idealogies.”
The President of Hungary – what she speaks in this article, part of the Fidesz Propaganda machine, her Polical Party – what she speaks is WRONG or mis-leading in FACT – to the Citizens of Hungary.
To obtain a clearer understanding of the European Union – Victor Orban led Fidesz Political Party of Government, under the Prime Ministership of Victor Orban – the comments shared by the (2) two commentators – give True & Factual examples & reasons – why the Orban led Government of Hungary – continues to HAVE – the Humongous Challenges – going forward – with the European Union.
Hungary – our way by the Laws of membership as a member of the European Union – or remain somewhat in Purgatory.
The liklihood GROWS – that could see Hungarys time Expire in Purgatory – and in the immediate Future – under Victor Orban be – “Sent to Coventry.”
The Nadir of Hungarys “broadsheet” of PROBLEMS – the bottom of them, continues to be DISTANCED.
I hope Hungary will not get one euro from the EU. Eat what you cooked.
Hungary has to abide by EU rules if it wants EU money. Orban, Fidesz and unfortunately the people of Hungary will get what they deserve. Hopefully people will wake up there but unfortunately far too many Hungarians are just too stupid and have been brainwashed for years by Fidesz control of the media along with some Kremlin propaganda facilitated by the Hungarian government itself. It will take a major economic crisis to force change in Hungary and it should start with the resignation of the big buffoon Orban.
Victorinu the Beggar is Putin’s Trojan horse, Orbánistan does not belong in the EU. The earlier the Union understands this and acts accordingly, the better.
So Novák No Brain is effectively claiming that the Hungarian people support corruption? Because that is what this tranche of funds being withheld is about. “ideologies that have been rejected by Hungarians” – I have yet to meet a Hungarian who thinks government corruption is acceptable.
Mostly leftist retarded trolls commenting here.
EU can go to hell (along with the globalists) with their money. I’d rather manage without the money, that’s only somewhat needed because of artificially implemented needs.
Hungary should leave the tyrannic EU asap.
Most people have no clue of this though. Most people believe in EU.
People had belief in USSR as well, same kind of naive sheep.
History repeats itself.
WHAT??!!??!! You mean is isn’t the LGBT, it’s the Orban cartel? GEE, it all seemed so clear, the EU is punishing Hungary for IDEAOLOGY things! And it’s true. Like in the Bible, “Thou shall not steal”. So the difference between the EU and Hungary is that it’s president condones stealing! So happy that I got this clear!
@Sven Svensson, “retarded trolls” – what an unpleasant person you are. Personal attacks are not acceptable in this forum. Please desist.
Taxpayers in other EU countries should absolutely not be paying for corruption and cronyism in Hungary – not a cent more should be sent until Hungary fulfils its obligations.
Hungary is ENTITLED, that is true, hungary is doing great – ask macedonia or north macedonia right? they were promosed for years, even changed their name of the country and still not in eu.. eu is wek, italy will leave too, why stay in eu? to have your kids become like the many jails pedophile teaching kids about sexuality? to have your country controlled by the west? svensson is right
Hungary is ENTITLED, that is true, hungary is doing great – ask macedonia or north macedonia right? they were promised for years, even changed their name of the country and still not in eu.. eu is weak, italy will leave too, why stay in eu? to have your kids become like the many jails pedophile teaching kids about sexuality? to have your country controlled by the west? svensson is actually right
This is a good reason not to depend on the EU for building pipelines with the help of EU. Whenever, the EU has a tantrum, they would probably shut off the pipeline carrying gas, oil. EU cannot be trusted.
Orban was elected on a list of promises that he has now broken. His government have been and are still corrupt. This must stop and the EU are trying to do this. When Hungary joined the EU club they agreed to abide by the rules. If you dont like those rules now then leave…..but dont expect any money.