Final major surveys: Hungary election polls close with Tisza on course for possible two-thirds landslide

Voting has officially closed in Hungary’s pivotal parliamentary election, and the final two major pre-election polls suggest Péter Magyar’s Tisza Party could be heading for a historic landslide victory over Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz.

The last surveys published by 21 Research Centre and Medián, both conducted in the final days before Sunday’s vote, independently point to a near-identical result: Tisza at around 55% and Fidesz just below 38%, a margin large enough to potentially hand the opposition not just a clear majority, but even a constitutional two-thirds supermajority.

With turnout reaching a record 77.8% by 6:30 PM, this election is already shaping up to be one of the most consequential in modern Hungarian political history.

21 Research Centre: Tisza nearing two-thirds

According to the 21 Research Centre’s final Telex-commissioned survey, conducted between 8 and 11 April, Tisza is projected to win 55% of the vote, while Fidesz stands at 38%.

This 17-point lead is the largest advantage the institute has measured for Tisza so far.

Under its seat calculator, the result would translate into:

• Tisza: 132 seats
• Fidesz (including the minority MP): 62 seats
• Mi Hazánk: 5 seats

While this would still fall just short of a formal two-thirds majority, the pollster noted that several constituencies remain highly competitive and could still tip either way.

The institute also highlighted the extraordinary scale of Tisza’s mobilisation, estimating the party may have attracted around 700,000 more voters than all opposition parties combined managed in 2022.

If turnout ultimately remains close to 80%, Tisza’s projected vote total could exceed 3.2 million domestic votes, which would mark an all-time record in Hungarian electoral history.

Medián: clear path to constitutional supermajority

Medián’s final survey, conducted in the last five days of the campaign among 2,286 adults, paints an even more dramatic picture.

Its list projections place:

• Tisza: 55.5%
• Fidesz-KDNP: 37.9%
• Mi Hazánk: 3.9%
• DK: 1.4%
• MKKP: 1.3%

Unlike 21 Research Centre, Medián’s model suggests Tisza could comfortably cross the two-thirds threshold.

Its projected parliament would look like this:

• Tisza: 135 seats (range 131–139)
• Fidesz-KDNP: 63 seats
• Roma minority representative: 1 seat

Since 133 seats are required for a constitutional majority, Medián’s central estimate would hand Péter Magyar’s party the numbers needed to reshape Hungary’s legal and institutional system.

A defining night for Hungary

The striking similarity between the country’s two most respected independent pollsters will intensify expectations as vote counting gets underway.

Still, no official results are expected until around 8 PM, and in a close constituency race, the final nationwide outcome may not be fully clear until later this week, once overseas and absentee ballots are counted.

For now, the final polling consensus suggests Hungary may be on the brink of its most dramatic political change in sixteen years.

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