Forint surges to multi-year peak as a turning point looms
The forint continues to break multi-year records, having gained significantly since April, when one euro cost 410 forints; it now holds steady below 390, with further strengthening expected. Against the dollar, the Hungarian currency has not been this strong since the early months of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. However, analysts warn of turbulence ahead in 2026.
Forint keeps gaining strength
Anyone tracking the forint’s performance today would be in high spirits, as the Hungarian currency continues to reach new heights against both the euro and, notably, the US dollar. This trend does not come as a surprise: since the start of the American president’s second term, efforts have been made to reduce the US trade deficit and weaken the dollar, encouraging the return of low-value production processes to US soil.
It is no coincidence that the forint has strengthened by 20% against the dollar since the beginning of the year. Currently, one dollar costs 329.85 forints, having even dipped below 328 earlier in the day. The last time the forint was this strong against the dollar was in April 2022, portfolio.hu reports.
The forint is also performing well against the euro. Earlier today, the exchange rate briefly dipped below 388 HUF/EUR (currently 389.2), marking its highest level in over a year — although it remains far from the pre-COVID rate of 329.
- The forint is at multi-year highs, but how long can the momentum last?
Dominating regional currencies too
The forint is also faring well against regional currencies, having strengthened against both the Czech koruna and the Polish zloty. Against the zloty, it has not been this strong since last August, with the current rate standing at 91.26. This suggests investors currently see forint-based assets as more attractive than their Polish or Czech counterparts.
The forint currently trades at 447.76 to the British pound, 46.4 to the Chinese yuan, and 416.51 to the Swiss franc.
- Two-year high: the future of the forint according to analysts
Why is the forint rising?
Primarily because Hungary’s central bank has maintained a relatively high base rate of 6.5%, prompting many to hold or invest in forint-based assets. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve — the US central bank — recently cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points, further weakening the dollar in line with Trump’s policy approach. The Bank of England kept rates unchanged, while favourable US unemployment data also worked in the forint’s favour.
According to portfolio.hu, even though the third quarter is not yet over, the forint may still emerge as the global champion of currency strengthening. Since June, it has gained 6% against the euro — roughly half of which can be attributed to the weakening of the dollar.
Overvalued forint—storm clouds in 2026
Zoltán Varga, senior analyst at Equilor Investment Ltd., told MTI that the persistently high base rate supports the forint’s strength. However, he believes the forint is currently overvalued on fundamental grounds, and said that while short-term gains may continue, the outlook is more cautious.
G7.hu’s quick analysis echoes the short-term optimism, suggesting the forint may remain strong (under 400 HUF/EUR) until the end of the year. However, according to MBH Bank analysts at a recent press briefing, rates above 400 may return in 2026 — but only if the central bank lowers the base rate, which is considered necessary to stimulate the economy. For the time being, the bank has stated there are no plans for a rate cut before year-end.
Analysts at Erste Bank forecast the euro-forint exchange rate to return to 405 by the end of this year, climbing to 410 by the end of 2026.
What affects Hungary’s economic outlook?
According to senior analyst Zoltán Varga (Equilor), Hungary’s prospects are primarily influenced by:
- the downturn in the German economy, and
- global uncertainty caused by trade wars.
The ECB’s interest rate cut cycle may be over, while political risks are exacerbating the eurozone’s already fragile GDP growth. Domestic demand and German investments could pick up next year, providing a potential boost.
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He added that the war in Ukraine continues to dampen investment appetite. In Hungary, household consumption is expected to keep rising in the coming quarters, supported by increasing real wages and government programmes. Inflation could return to the central bank’s tolerance band in Q1 2026 and is projected to average 3.7% next year.
Rising wages
Sándor Czomba, a state secretary at the Ministry for National Economy, delivered a series of positive updates for workers at today’s press briefing.
He noted that:
- Real wages are up by around 5%, a notable achievement both in Hungary and across Europe.
- Thanks to government measures supporting families, net wages are rising faster than gross wages. This is partly due to income tax exemptions for workers under 25 and mothers under 30. From 1 October, the tax relief for mothers with three children will affect 200,000–250,000 earners.
- In Budapest, the average gross salary now stands at 840,000 forints, with only three counties remaining below the 550,000-forint mark.
- This year, the minimum wage rose by 9%, with plans to increase it by 13% next year and 14% in 2027. The goal is to reach a minimum wage of €1,000 by 1 January 2027 and to lift the average gross salary to one million forints by 1 January 2028.
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