Russian involvement may lie behind VAT fraud, with EUR 184 million disappearing without a trace

According to the only logical explanation, the multi-tens-of-billions gas-market VAT fraud of 2024 may have been directed by the Russian intelligence services. The fictitious electronic supply-chain transactions used to launder the deals also leave open the question of who, and for what purpose, could access such vast sums within the Hungarian energy market.

Nearly HUF 70 billion (approx. EUR 183.5 million) may have been siphoned from the Hungarian state by unknown perpetrators who, in 2024, disrupted the domestic gas market on an unprecedented scale.

According to Válasz Online’s sources, the level of organisation and magnitude of the VAT fraud scheme were exceptionally high, draining money from the national budget with industrial efficiency – all while banks and authorities remained effectively paralysed.

Based on the information available so far, a network linked to Russian intelligence services may stand behind the machinations. Although there is still no direct proof, there is no other rational explanation for how companies previously unknown in the market could access enormous quantities of natural gas and sell it on at below-market prices.

Initially, there was no reason for suspicion

At first glance, the VAT fraud actually appeared to have a positive effect on the gas market. The gas sold by the perpetrators flooded CEEGEX, trading volumes rose by 65 per cent, and even MVM welcomed the surprisingly strong upswing.

Almost every market participant benefited from the expansion: storage operators, shippers, exchange-member traders, and even the government, since the influx of cheap gas lowered energy prices. It was only later that it became clear all this stemmed from a gigantic tax scam.

There was nothing initially to justify suspicion of VAT fraud: most of the gas had been imported from Austria with the involvement of major players such as OMV, and they only trade with those who meet the strictest reliability checks.

How the nominal “owners”, living on paper in deep poverty, could possibly meet these criteria leaves only one reasonable conclusion: they must have had serious, organised backing.

The methods point towards the Russians