Struggling German carmaking industry may ruin PM Orbán’s economic dreams and election chances – UPDATED

Orbán German carmaking industry
Photo: depositphotos.com

The German carmaking industry is struggling, and that has a devastating effect on Hungary’s economy because, despite all of Orbán’s “freedom fights” against the EU and his developing ties with China and other Eastern powers, the Hungarian economy’s key partners are Western states, especially Germany and the German car manufacturing industry.

German carmaking industry struggling

According to G7, Hungary’s GDP contracted by 0.7% in Q3 of 2024, meaning our country is in a technical recession. The Hungarian economy-focused media outlet found the reason in Hungary’s agriculture, industry and construction sectors. Their contribution to the GDP fall reached 2% this year.

According to Péter Virovácz, a senior analyst of ING Bank, the Hungarian agriculture sector’s 2023 base was very high, and the weather was catastrophic this year. The Hungarian industry and carmaking sector struggle because of Germany.

audi CUPRA Terramar győr German carmaking industry
The new Audi CUPRA Terramar in Győr. Photo: Facebook/Joó István

0.5% GDP growth for 2024 could be already a miracle

Mr Virovácz augurs a 1% GDP growth for 2024 in Hungary. Bence Stubnya, a journalist for G7, said the GDP increase will not reach 0.5% this year. The government said this year’s GDP growth would be 4%. Now, their prognosis is about 1.5%.

ING Bank‘s 2025 prognosis concerning Hungary’s GDP growth fell below 3%, while the Orbán cabinet talks about 3-6%. On 18 October, PM Orbán said everybody would be surprised when they see the Q1 GDP increase next year.

Without significant economic improvement, PM Orbán will be in trouble in the 2026 elections because Péter Magyar and his Tisza Party outpaced Fidesz in recent polls. Orbán’s Fidesz has been leading the polls since 2006 and has been governing the country since 2010.

PM Viktor Orbán pro-government media 
Photo: MTI

UPDATE: Eurozone develops, Hungary falls behind

The euro area economy expanded by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in July-September, Eurostat revealed Wednesday. Third-quarter growth was at 0.9% on a yearly basis, slightly above market expectations of 0.8%, the statistical authority announced. Economic growth projections for the eurozone also underestimated quarterly growth, which was 0.2%. On the EU side, the GDP growth rate was 0.3% for the third quarter on a quarterly basis and 0.9% for a yearly basis, the Turkish Anadolu news agency wrote.

Among member states, Ireland recorded the highest increase with 2% compared to the previous quarter, followed by Lithuania’s 1.1% and Spain’s 0.8%. Declines were recorded in

Hungary (minus 0.7%), Latvia (minus 0.4%) and Sweden (minus 0.1%).

Number of jobseekers continues to fall

The number of jobseekers in Hungary stood at 226,219 in October, 2,000 fewer than in the previous month, the state secretary for employment policy said on Thursday, citing data from the National Employment Service (NFSZ).

The October figure was the lowest for the month in more than three decades, Sándor Czomba said.

The number of people seeking work for longer than a year has fallen 4pc over a year, while around 20,000 Hungarians have found work with the support of programmes for under- and over-30s, he added.

The government aims to boost the employment rate to 85pc and tap the 300,000-strong labour market reserve, he said.

Read also:

  • National economy minister: Hungary’s growth hindered by external factors, especially automotive decline
  • No stopping: Hungarian forint hits another record low after weak GDP report

Featured image: despositphotos.com

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